SHOWNOTES
This week on Telltales, the team runs quickly through the memo’s Exhibits A–C (US finances, natural gas, and oil), then digs into the shifting competitive landscape in AI chips—Google, Nvidia, Broadcom, and the hyperscalers’ next moves.
[00:00] Welcome to Telltales + Cash Flow Memo A quick setup for a cross-sector episode spanning energy, technology, and healthcare—and a reminder to download the memo.
[00:00:20] Disclaimer Important investing and risk disclosures before the discussion begins.
[00:00:40] Exhibit C: Oil — Oversupply and price pressure The group discusses rising surplus capacity, the market’s reaction to weaker growth expectations (including China), and why certain geopolitical headlines may matter less than they seem.
[00:02:21] Exhibit B: Natural Gas — LNG margins and Europe pricing A look at softer gas pricing despite cold weather, the economics of getting LNG to Europe, and what shifting European supply dynamics could mean.
[00:03:45] Exhibit A: US Government Finances — Deficit trends and rate sensitivity The deficit outlook improves into 2026, with discussion on revenue growth, expense discipline, interest costs, and the 2s/10s spread as a key watch item.
[00:05:07] Why Google needs Broadcom & Nvidia does not The core segment: Google’s “software-orchestrator” DNA behind TPUs, Broadcom’s role as an industrialization partner, and Nvidia’s end-to-end “AI factory” strategy across chips, networking, and systems.
[00:18:59] The case for the MAG 6 (and the risks to watch) A year-end reflection on portfolio construction: why a handful of dominant platforms may be hard to ignore—and how to think about “Intel/IBM-style” downside risk inside today’s winners.
[00:26:19] Healthcare Updates — IPO talk and FDA acceleration Notes on a major healthcare IPO narrative, plus a standout FDA action tied to strong multiple myeloma data and what faster review pathways could signal.
[00:28:04] Next Week + Wrap A scheduling update (Monday sessions), a preview of predictions, and a closing reminder to stay healthy and keep up with the memo.
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