SHOWNOTES
A brisk tour through oil, gas, and U.S. fiscal mechanics, followed by a biotech history chapter and a deep dive on NVIDIA’s sustained dominance. We close with a big healthcare development—“Trump-RX”—and quick hits from Harrow Health’s investor day.
[00:00] Intro
[00:28] Exhibit C – Oil: $62 is Doing Its Job
Hunt frames today’s oil tape: production is rolling off in the U.S., OPEC, and non-OPEC; geopolitical thawing could keep prices soft near term. With Saudi capacity around 12 mb/d and surplus capacity trending toward ~2.5 mb/d by 2026, a “normally supplied” market implies oil trades in the $70s—though swoons into the $50s can happen on the way there.
[02:05] Exhibit B – Natural Gas, Power Burn & LNG
Gas underperformed, but storage is robust. Power burn was flat ’25 vs ’24 despite “AI, AI” chatter—a surprise tied to coal plant life-extension and a near-term lull in new wind/solar coming online. LNG demand stepped up this year; if power burn resumes climbing, a durable ~$4 gas band becomes more plausible.
[03:22] Exhibit A – U.S. Cash Flow & the Shutdown
The team walks through the continuing resolution dynamics: House bills vs 60-vote Senate reality, daily vote tactics, and the case for finishing all 12 appropriations. Beyond the political scoreboard, the focus is on process: budgeting via CRs isn’t how the system should work—and markets will parse timing of data releases like jobs.
[05:44] Biopharma History (Part 4): From Genzyme to Monoclonals
Jason spotlights Genzyme’s rare-disease model (boosted by the Orphan Drug Act), the Human Genome Project’s 13-year blueprint, and the 1996 Dolly milestone foreshadowing cell reprogramming. Genentech’s late-90s antibodies (Rituxan, Herceptin) ushered in targeted oncology—monoclonals remain the highest-grossing class today.
[12:09] Next Week: OpenAI—A Controversial History
Programming note: the crew will tackle OpenAI’s origin story and flashpoints next week, with Oracle and NVIDIA history episodes likely to follow.
[14:19] NVIDIA’s Moat: Cash, CUDA, Cadence (p. 3)
Hunt updates the NVIDIA page: zero net debt, >$50B cash, ~$85B run-rate FCF on ~$170B revenue, and modest capex vs hyperscalers. Mike explains why CUDA’s ecosystem and annual product cadence (powered by ~$15B R&D) create a TCO advantage so strong that even “free” AMD GPUs lose in practice; the window for rivals narrows as workloads stay variable.
[21:20] Post-Break: ASICs vs. AMD & What’s After LLMs
Jason notes the market’s pivot: when buyers do switch from NVIDIA, they’re more often going custom (ASIC/TPU) than to AMD. He adds that frontier researchers expect architectures beyond today’s LLMs to power the next step in reasoning—another reason flexibility favors NVIDIA’s stack for now.
[22:43] Healthcare Shake-Up: “Trump-RX” and PBMs
A new Medicare direct-to-consumer platform (Pfizer as first partner) could remove PBMs from many transactions, standardize pricing, and simplify Part D decisions. The panel discusses “gross-to-net” dynamics (often ~50% industrywide) and why UnitedHealth’s PBM economics could face pressure; potential annual savings to Medicare could be very large.
[27:25] Harrow Health Investor Day: Buying Back Melt
Harrow fully acquires the rest of Melt (anesthetic asset) for $8M upfront plus royalties. The team praises the capital allocation arc—spin out in the lean years, re-acquire after Phase 3 success once cash flows stabilize—highlighting optionality beyond ophthalmology (e.g., dentistry).
[28:41] Wrap-Up & Next Week
Sign-off with a reminder to check the memo. Next episode: OpenAI’s history—then likely Oracle and NVIDIA deep dives.
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