The World Cup hasn’t traditionally been a favorite event for U.S. sports bettors. But as North America prepares to host, the gambling landscape is a lot different. Since 2018, sports betting has been legal, and 10% of Americans partake. Punters may wage $1.5 billion on the tournament this summer.
Then there’s been the inescapable emergence of prediction markets: on the face of it, simply another form of gambling, but treated by the federal government as futures trading with little regulation. It’s a ripe moment for both controversial industries to try and drive more soccer fans to their phones.
Of course, FIFA has gotten in on the act, with its own very strange and politically entangled prediction market model, reported here by Front Office Sports.
Talib speaks with Dustin Gouker, betting consultant and author of the Substack newsletters Event Horizon and The Closing Line, to unpack the laissez-faire state of gambling in 2026, and how it might meet the beautiful game.
00:00 Intro
00:40 US Gambling Explosion Since 2018
04:20 How Sports Betting Got Legal
07:54 The Rise of Prediction Markets
10:04 How Big Are They Now
12:21 Risks Addiction And Manipulation
15:01 Betting On War And Death
16:20 Political Ties
17:29 Why World Cup Betting Could Surge
20:21 FIFA Prediction Platform Mystery
24:51 Legal Fights and Political Winds
29:19 Prediction Markets vs Polls
