Show Notes:
Nico Johnson is the founder and host of SunCast, where he’s interviewed more than 800 clean energy leaders about the future of solar, storage, and electrification.
A two-decade solar veteran, Nico has worked in markets from South Carolina to Chile and has become one of the most trusted voices in renewable energy.
Here’s his LinkedIn.
Expect to learn:
* Why clean energy will still thrive without tax incentives.
* How shifting from “selling solar” to “selling electrification” will change the products, financing, and customer experience in the post-IRA world.
* Why solar will be “so cheap it’s basically free” within 80 years.
You can listen to this episode here, or on:
* YouTube
* Spotify
Transcript:
Aaron Nichols:Hello, everyone, and welcome back to this week in solar. I'm Aaron Nichols, the research and policy specialist here at Exact Solar in Newtown, Pennsylvania.And before we get into today's guest, I wanted to say that today's episode is brought to you by solar in a very interesting way not as a sponsor but as a technology.I'm actually on a road trip deep in the woods of Wyoming right now and because I have a 200 watt solar panel and a battery bank and a starlink I'm able to record this interview from the back of my truck which is incredible and that's what I love about solar energy more than anything is that it enables things that were previously not possible.And that is something that I love about our first guest. I really cannot believe he's our first guest that he agreed to be our first guest on this podcast.But I could go on about him forever. Nico Johnson has been a mentor and a friend to me since I started this industry two years ago and started posting on LinkedIn.I was the editor of content at his podcast, Sundcast, for a little an investor and entrepreneur. He's so well known in the space.I'm just incredibly grateful that you're here, Nico, and thank you for being our first guest.
Nico Johnson:Well, I have to say, I wish that I could be there in the woods of Wyoming with you. Like, you were here in our kids' treehouse with me only a few, a couple months ago.And it's been wonderful to see that all of your ideas take flight and the fruit of that is the sort of newfound stardom that I think you're enjoying on LinkedIn, if not, if nowhere else.But it's funny to me, the number of folks that you now will respond back to me. Oh yeah, I'm talking to that person.And it's great. It just shows how easy it is with the current tools at our disposal to build a network and rapport quickly if you're intentional about it and you are your evidence of that.So my hat's off to you. I think that what you're doing with this week in solar is wonderful. It's something that I've been asked by countless people that we should be doing.And I'm like, no, we're not a new show. Somebody should do that, though. And I'm really very pleased that you have started this.I encourage you to keep it up. And of course, when you reach out and ask if I would join you for the series, I'm happy to do so one little way.I can both contribute to the work that you're doing and acknowledge that it's work worth doing.
Aaron Nichols:Thank you so much, man.And yeah, to riff on your earlier point about just meeting leaders in the space, I've been in disbelief since I came into this industry just how accessible the leaders in the space have been.I think my favorite story is we were planning a workforce program that unfortunately we weren't able to pull together, but we called Sean White about helping run some of it, and I had done my NAPSET PV associate and taken Sean White's course on heat spring and seen his face.And I thought he was going to be this inaccessible digital guru, and then I called the number and he just said, hey, it's Sean White.I mean, there's this phone, yeah. Yeah, I couldn't believe it. Yeah, it's been so amazing to be connected to so many of these leaders, and you have been a large part of that for me.So I'm eternally grateful and I think that brings us to our first question, which is that on your podcast, Suncast, which everyone here should be listening to, if you're interested in clean energy, you've interviewed more than 800 clean energy leaders and entrepreneurs, just the preeminent founders in the space, incredibly brilliant people.So obviously, we're going to be navigating a post-inflation reduction act world soon, and among all of these entrepreneurs, I guess it's a two-part question.Is there a common thread that you see and also what do clean energy entrepreneurs need to be doing now that we're gonna be navigating world without incentives?
Nico Johnson:It's a great privilege to be able to spend the last decade of my career interacting with what has proven to be a very accessible group of elite performers in the industry, founders, executives, investors, advisors who are helping bring about the clean energy transition.There's something very interesting that perhaps is a through line. It is that because of the nature of our industry, founders in this industry you're extremely resilient and are kind of against all odds, kind of people.They've chosen to go into a field where we had a commanding 0.2 percent adoption rate in the United States of all energy users, right?Less than 0.08. I remember because we said it was less than one-tenth of one percent. It was like 0.08. And we've seen that skyrocket to the single digits, almost getting in double digits here.And the amount of belief that it takes to build a business around that prospect for the last 20 years or the last two years required more than a spreadsheet and a spreadsheet around fundamentals of how incentives work.A lot of folks get into this industry because they have an affinity for helping their neighbors and their planet, but also because they want to leave a legacy.So one of the things that losing the RRA and seeing the current disruption in the incentive of structure for this business that happens is it can give, it can be a bit of a blow to folks belief system that this deserves to exist.And that's one of the things that I'm encouraged from creators like you that there is a need to remind folks that this not only is inevitable but it needs to exist and that it is economic uniquely feasible around the world without incentives.America is not only one of the most fat incentives in the solar market globally. It's one of the markets that can operate without incentives.You'll hear a lot of naysayers say that it won't. And I would say that the devil’s in the details, soft costs, et cetera, and things that we've allowed to continue or perpetuate that shouldn't.But I worked a long time in Latin America, and I watched the Chile market get below-grid parity in 2013. 12 years ago, like, what do the Chileans have that we don't sell for one?Their avoided costs or what they were paying in retail, like Chesey, was closer to like 20-25 cents a kilowatt hour.They didn't even have a distribution system that could distribute power from the north of Chile to the south of Chile.It's like California. It'd be like if California's ice, inland empire couldn't interoper, wasn't interoperable with PG&E. Right, and they still got to grid parity.Most of Europe is at or near grid parity. Australia's been at grid parity. Obviously, again, it's how much does it cost for the inputs?And we have lived in the privilege of having super low cost inputs, my home, where I grew up in South Carolina, my parents were paying somewhere in the 7 to 8 cents a kilowatt hour range for their predominantly coal power in South Carolina.So it's hard to make the numbers pencil for solar when all that coal power and all that natural gas power has been heavily subsidized to get off the ground, right?So the embodied subsidies are available now to serve as a counterpoint to why we don't need subsidies, but this technology is inevitable.I think that we have to not sell on the technology, but the inevitability of change and the reality that every consumer's pocketbook thanks to the actions of this administration.Every consumer's pocketbook is going to get hit. That everyone's electricity costs are gonna go up, not down. And the beauty of this, and I think you probably have a question about it, but I'm gonna go ahead and put it in here.Like the beauty of everything that's happening right now is that in the timeframe of somewhere between 18 and 24 months, the equivalent of our 30% federal incentive will happen in the reverse, but in their pocketbook.So their actual real cost will go up by 30% if they didn't already go solar. And most solar and solar at that point will be able to say if you had gone solar at the end of 25, you wouldn't have experienced this 30% increase, right?Would have been sheltered or hedged from it. So we really got to get to that inborn American resilience of wanting to own our own power, wanting to own to be the standard bearer for the future of our family.And you can really actually take control of your family finances by eliminating variable costs. And what your utility will charge you in 18 months is a wild-ass guess.So, solar is one of the best ways to hedge against the inevitable increase.
Aaron Nichols:It is really incredible. And we're, I don't want to say lucky because obviously there's people who are going to suffer as a result of this but we are seeing record power increases in our region as an installer that covers New Jersey and Southeast Pennsylvania, we've had an incredible skyrocketing of power rates because of some things that we don't need to get into right now.But it's just going to get worse, and we've been using the language Smart Shoppers buy-in bulk. Why not buy your energy in bulk?
Nico Johnson:Oh, yeah. Excellent. That's, I like that. Yeah. I mean, Florida alone is at 20% rise in electricity over the past five years.Right. And that's just if you look across the entire market and average it, in certain jurisdictions, it's gone up as much as 300 percent, same in California.
Aaron Nichols: So yeah, I think that obviously covers—it’s a sad thing to be hopeful about—to know that there’s just so much price gouging, and of course there’s going to be a lot. You can tell, power is going to cost more and more.And I think the reason Americans dislike that is because you’re just always going to pay more for the same product.It’s never going to innovate. It’s never going to change. It’s going to be the same thing, but you’re always just going to pay more for it.And all of that is still going to exist. So obviously, there’s a lot to be hopeful for about there. But is there anything else that you’re very hopeful about as we head into this new market?
Nico Johnson:
I am—two things. Actually three things.One, I’m hopeful that SolarAPP will become adopted universally.It has proven to reduce overhead and soft costs, especially in one of the hardest areas to reduce—and that’s permitting.So SolarAPP should be adopted by every municipality across the United States. I think that will increasingly happen.
I’m hopeful number two that we will see a right-sizing of how installers treat their sales teams.There’s been a lot of outsourcing of sales, and I think we’re going to see a lot of sales teams move back in-house to the best installers.And the best and the brightest are going to be proud of their internal sales process and sales teams. It’s going to be something they own and manage.And I think a lot of the external sales reps, by the way, who are really good at conversion, are going to be great consultants.
But I don’t think that as an industry we will—or should—rely on the external sales team model that became very prevalent over the last seven, eight years.Structurally, it’s very difficult to find other markets like that. Alarms is one. Garage doors is another.I feel like it’s a handful. I’m probably wrong—somebody can fact-check me in the comments—that rely on door-to-door sales.I’m hopeful that solar will now move beyond door-to-door sales as the primary mechanism for selling to homeowners.
And then the third: I’m hopeful we’ll see a resurgence of exactly what you’re doing—off-grid solar.I think off-grid DIY solar is going to see a great resurgence.I’ve considered how I should create content around it to take advantage of the renewed interest, because whether you have incentives or not, if you’re off-grid, you don’t get them.It was really monopolistic anyway, so I think the DIY market is going to see a huge resurgence.
Aaron Nichols:Yeah, that’s something I was just talking to our mutual friend Spenser Meeks about when I interviewed him as well.I think we have a lot to learn from the way the off-grid market markets itself.They are so good—especially because they have to be B2C—but they’re so good at just saying, “You are going to have an awesome new lifestyle that you couldn’t have had before because you have this thing.”
Yeah. So obviously we’re moving forward. I mean, it’s incredible to hear that you’re so hopeful about where we’re headed and that you think the companies doing it right are actually still going to win.I’m very grateful to be part of a company that isn’t using door-to-door sales.But as anyone who’s listened to my episodes on Suncast knows, I did actually start in solar doing door-to-door sales.And everything I’ve done since then is really just kind of penance for my sins.I want to be clear that I don’t want to vilify the door-to-door sales industry—I think it did tremendous good in helping us scale fast—but it didn’t come without false promises and some really negative side effects.I think that’s going to get worked out finally.It’s something we’ve been calling for—a reckoning there.
And I do think it’s important for the solar industry to present a more united front under the current administration.But if you do want to learn more about many of the things that happened in the door-to-door era, there’s a woman named Alana Semuels. She’s a reporter for Time Magazine and she wrote an excellent four-part series on it.
So moving on—as we move into this new world, what do you think are maybe some challenges or opportunities we haven’t foreseen?This is one reason I wanted to do this interview series. There’s been so much talk about what could happen—and none of it happened.We were lobbying so hard and got just a little bit of what we wanted. But now we’re in a new world.What do we do now? What are some challenges or opportunities you think we haven’t thought of yet?
Nico Johnson:Yeah. One of the obvious challenges to me is that the 25D and 48E incentives were monetized through capital markets—and those products are going to go away.If not entirely, they’re going to dramatically change.So the near-term challenge we have as an industry is not just squeezing in as many sales before December 31, 2025, as possible.
It’s: how do we actually, when the industry goes from 5% to 45% adoption, create a product that helps every homeowner finance this—like they finance a refrigerator?When do we get to the point where someone can have an Affirm loan on their solar generator—because what they’re really buying is a balcony solar system with four panels and one EcoFlow battery?
Some really smart people are thinking about how to engage the broader banking sector—not just Wall Street.I mean people like Anson Rabinowitz and Mikkelson from Atmos.They basically provide a fintech solution for community banks and federal credit unions and other entities trying to distribute funds—even grant programs—in a more scalable, economic way.By leveraging fintech like Atmos, they’re able to reach more people at lower cost.
Just here in my home state, the Clean Energy Fund is looking for a program manager to execute a several-million-dollar program across North Carolina.Those programs aren’t administered by groups like GoodLeap or Mosaic.So I think there’s a real market opportunity for groups like Atmos that can bring industry and financial tools to bear.
I’m reminded of the folks at Project Solar.That was a fantastic interview. It blew my mind—this burgeoning DIY market and the e-commerce tools letting us treat solar like a consumer product, not a bespoke project.In truth, if we’re honest about what the sales orgs did over the last 5–7 years, they standardized a product that could be sold by anyone—even a college student at the door.That wasn’t possible when I started my company in 2006.
So I’m hopeful. But the big challenge is: how do we finance this?How do we help consumers see it as just another appliance?
Another point—I think we’ve been selling solar, but we’re no longer just selling solar.We’re selling electrification.If you listen to what utilities are saying, we’re selling distributed energy resources—often in the form of a battery that may or may not have solar attached.Batteries didn’t get touched. So some utilities may start selling batteries.Solar is now just something that makes that battery better.
If you think of people who sold home AV systems—they weren’t selling speakers. They were selling a TV, and the speakers made it better.I think the battery is the television of our category. Everyone wants one.Solar just amplifies its value.
Aaron Nichols:Right. That’s a really good point—and thank you for pointing that out.
You know, Nico, one of the things that’s just been so interesting to me since I came into this industry is the quality of people—and how close everyone seems.I joke with everybody that it can be intimidating. You meet veterans and they’re all best friends, godparents to each other’s kids.So it can feel like a club that’s hard to break into.
But I’m interested—first, why do you think such good people are here?And second, what causes that closeness?
Nico Johnson:Every month, as I ride the solar coaster, I think at least once about an alternate reality I could’ve chosen.One that wasn’t the pain train of trying to make solar a commonplace appliance.
I’ve been in the industry since 2006, and the people I’ve met are here for the same reason I am—not to make money, but to make an impact.We want to leave a legacy.
I don’t know if I’ll be remembered beyond the day I die. But the folks I’ve met who’ve persisted—who’ve stayed—have become my best friends, my kids’ godparents.They believe in this.
It’s not unlike an F1 team.Fifteen or twenty years ago, the idea of an American or Brit winning the F1 title seemed impossible.But then Lewis Hamilton did it.Yes, he was a world-class athlete. But people around him believed it was possible.
A lot of us have been enablers of this industry. Johnny Weiss—our dear friend—he just passed away. He founded Solar Energy International.He didn’t do it to make money. He did it to make an impact.
People call me all the time saying they work in fossil fuels or banking and hate their lives.They’ve made more money than they imagined—but dread the moment their kids ask: “Why didn’t you do something different?”And the only answer they’d have is financial security.
So many of us have foregone financial security to be part of something that could change how we make, use, store, and move electricity.
Jerry Shao said this is the biggest wealth transfer in generations.And what brings us together is that we are seed planters, not harvesters.
When you’re in a community of seed planters, you’re surrounded by long-term thinkers.
Aaron Nichols:I remember Honold saying something similar when you interviewed him—how he goes to clean energy conferences and says, “These are my people.”He doesn’t have to filter.
It’s amazing.And as someone to whom the baton is now being passed, it’s incredible to see the groundwork y’all have laid.It’s humbling. It makes me feel like I’m in the right place.
Nico Johnson:If you want to use that baton analogy, I’m in the second leg.There’s a generation of Johnny Weisses who were here in the ’70s. That’s the first leg.My generation got the baton around 2004–2006.You’re in the third leg. And in a relay race, each leg gets faster.
I remember Johnny telling me, “How do you do it? You’re running so fast.”And now I look at the work you’re doing, the work others your age are doing, and I’m in awe.I don’t have that energy anymore.But there are still miles to go.
Aaron Nichols:Yeah. And as we think about baton passing, I’d like to give you the chance to riff a little.I spoke at my grandma’s 80th birthday the other week—happy birthday, Grandma!And I realized she was born in 1945. Renewable energy, as we know it, didn’t exist.PV wasn’t invented until 1954. Jimmy Carter didn’t put solar on the White House until 1979—and that was just solar thermal.
So to end things: where do you think renewable energy—or solar—will be in 80 years?We’ll both be gone. No one will hold us accountable.
Nico Johnson:I love that. I’m glad I won’t be accountable for this answer.
I’ve said this from the beginning. In one of my early Suncast episodes, Camila Patrini said:“In 80 years, solar energy will be free.”
So I’ll borrow that:In 80 years, solar energy will not only be ubiquitous—it’ll be so cheap it’s basically free.And that will create entirely new paradigms of business and energy services.
People will be aghast that there was opposition—just like people are shocked now that anyone opposed cars or computers.Our grandchildren will say, “What do you mean people didn’t like solar?”That’s like saying you don’t like clean air.
And when energy is free, firm, distributed, what would you build?What businesses would you create?What paradigms would you change?
This is not hypothetical. It’s a technological reality.
Companies like BrightNight and Intersect are already building solar-natural-gas-battery hybrid plants with 75%+ capacity factors.In 2006, that was unthinkable.
So 55 years from now?Universal acceptance. No question.
I’m also excited about small modular nuclear.And who knows—maybe we’ll just be able to paint solar on.
Aaron Nichols:We already can!
Nico, thank you so much for being our first guest. It really means the world.Anyone listening should check out suncast.media.And if you want a great place to start, just search my name—I’ve been on three times.
That’s This Week in Solar.If you liked today’s episode, reply to the Substack email, leave a YouTube comment—whatever’s on your mind.We’d love your feedback.
We’ll see you next week.
