Later than usual this week (I was watching the coronation, rather than recording. . . )
I looked at 106 data releases, and got back 22 surprises and 17 shocks, with the US v positive, Asia positive, and Europe negative. Within that I highlighted:
* The surprising strength of US April heavy-truck sales - a ‘not-a-recession’ indicator.
* Dreadful March monetary data from the Eurozone and US. March seems to be the month when the deterioration in conditions is no longer being set by the Fed or ECB, but rather, the damage is now concatenating and generating its own negative momentum. That’s very bad news.
* Surprisingly, however, that doesn’t (yet) seem true of the UK, where surprisingly resilient demand data echoes the comparatively modest deterioration in monetary conditions.
* Germany’s 10.7% mom fall in March factory orders came under inspection: earlier worries that Germany’s numbers were being propped up by channel-stuffing operations in the Eurozone look more likely now.
* I also ran the numbers for public debt sustainability for Italy, France and Spain. Unequivocally bad news for Italy, but also a real threat now for France unless it can rein in the dramatic deterioration in its current fiscal trajectory. Good news for Spain, though: its finances finally begin to look sustainable.
