The highlights this week included:
The ins and outs of US banks’ credits & deposits in March. Problem, not crisis, I think.
US labour market data: not nice, with job openings, ADP private payrolls and non-farm payrolls all on weak side. The problem is that even those pallid additions lean heavily on the lowest-paid, lowest-productivity sector - leisure and hospitality. And even there, although hourly wages are rising a bit, weekly hours are falling faster, so average take-home pay in the sector fell. Can’t build an economy on baristas alone.
In Europe, I looked at Germany’s v strong Feb industrial data, and worried whether Germany’s auto-industry is simply stuffing its Eurozone channels. I also raised a flag over France’s budget deficit, which is hefty, and now going the wrong way at speed, as corporate tax collections have collapsed.
In Asia, I celebrated the jump in Singapore’s March foreign reserves - it’s the Last Man Standing as far as safe financial centres go: loan/deposit ratio of 73% only, private sector savings surplus of around 18% of GDP!
