The most important thing we're seeing today is the uprising in Kazakhstan, which has seen riots and protests throughout this vast country, with govt buildings fired in Almaty. And now we've got Russian paratroops involved. Dozens of deaths are reported, but we don't really know, since the internet has been cut off.
Where to start with Kazakhstan? It's the size of Western Europe with the population of the Netherlands. It's vast empty steppes are almost certainly teeming with every kind of commodity the world needs - including uranium and oil. It's a giant chemistry set. It is neighbour to Russia, China, Kyrgyzstan (China's Central Asian best friend), Uzbekistan. On the other shore from the Caspian Sea, it neighbours Russia (again) Iran and Azerbaijan. In other words, it's strategically the one Central Asian country that really matters.
A few years ago I spent a couple of weeks in Almaty being paid to frame an obviously futile, indeed crazy, investment trust based on the Kazakhstani consumer sector. (Truth is stranger than fiction.) I left with a few thoughts: the mountains outside Almaty are dazzlingly beautiful; the Russians are in a minority; and the Kazakhs themselves the toughest scariest bunch I've ever met. Ethnically, I think they are first cousins to the Koreans, with significant Mongol and Turkish input. Among them, the resident Russians felt, with good reason, felt pretty jumpy.
My driver there, though, had something to say. His highly credentialled mother used to work as chief admin to the wife of someone very very, very, senior in the government. (In today's situation, I'm naming no names.) One day, he turned to me, and just said: 'I tell you, these people are wolves'.
Because of its size and its immense commodities potential, whoever is leading Kazakhstan can do pretty much whatever he likes with the economy and with the financial system - it's just one of those places that can never really go bust, such is its hidden natural wealth. And that in turn has meant it has an absolutely appalling record of corruption and bad governance at the top that has gone on for decades - with the family of former president/strongman Nazarbayef outstanding in this respect. My driver again: 'These people are wolves'.
All these years ago, this was already obvious, the resentment was everywhere, and the people the toughest I've ever met. So don't be fooled into thinking what's going on is just about fuel prices. There are decades of resentments coming out now.
