It is shared wisdom that trade is a motor of global economic growth, so it is puzzling that no attention is paid to the continuingly proliferating thicket of non-tariff barriers (NTBs) planted to impede and curtail this growth. The World Trade Organization maintains a database of who is raising NTBs, but as far as I can tell, it is ignored in mainstream economic coverage. But I have the freedom to watch and comment, so I check it on the first Friday of every month.
In September, the four major economic powers (US, China, EU, Japan) added a further 66 NTBs designed to impede and slow trade. Over the year to September, they added a further 380, taking the total to 13,704 - up 4.9%yoy.
The rise is relentless, with the obstacles in place up 86% since 3Q 2010. Erect enough obstacles and eventually trade will be impeded. That point has probably already been reached: on a 12m basis the imports of these four giant economies peaked in 2018, well before the world had heard of coronavirus. The pandemic accelerated the decline, it did not initiate it. By August, 12m imports from these countries was down 7.9% yoy, and was down 9.5% from the 2018 peak.
Although the world's trade warriors are plainly winning their war against trade, there is no sign that their efforts will flag or abate.
