There are a number of prices I check daily, and run simple technicals to identify trends. These include all the major currencies and some minor ones, commodity signals, major crypto values and US bond market signals. The metrics I use are actually quite simple, but easier to explain with a worksheet going than not. But the signals have a pretty good track-record, if you view their purpose as correctly naming trends, rather than catching the first or last few percentage points of a move.
What they signalled last week is that the dollar has established a strengthening trend against the SDR - no surprises there - but that the key currency mover which pushed it over the edge was China's Rmb, which broke from the strengthening trend we'd picked up in July last year when it was over 7 to the dollar (it was 6.50 when we called it) and established a weakening trend.
This raises important issues, which I raise in today's edition. But the crucial thing to notice is that that it has happened: one way or another, this is a regime-change moment.
