As usual, the week started quietly, with data only adding detail and nuance to trends we've already identified.
In Taiwan, Sept's manufacturing PMI rose 3pts to 55.2, the highest since March 2018, bolstered by very strong growth in orders, exports, output, payrolls, backlogs. But as we've seen elsewhere, demand surprises tend to run headlong into supply shocks, and this is happening in Taiwan too, with delivery time continuing to lengthen.
In Europe, the UK is/was the only economy showing a service-sector recovery, with Sept's PMI at 56.1, whilst Eurozone was still contracting, at 48.
In the US, Friday's vehicles data had autos/light trucks up 7.6% mom to a level only 3.6% below the 2019 average - ie, recovery. But heavy truck sales, which I think is a great indicator, were down 5.3% mom and down 26.3% yoy. The slump started in Oct/Nov last year, and hit collapse during Covid, and the recovery we've seen since then only takes sales back to around the lows seen in 2016. This signal remains basically negative.
