I'm on the lookout for early signs about how the world economy is reacting to the so-called arrival of the so-called 'second wave' of coronavirus (about which I am profoundly sceptical, on statistical grounds). Today we got what may be two early straws in the wind: S Korea's Sept consumer confidence, and the Eurozone's August money data.
S Korea's confidence got hit, but encouragingly, mainly on assessment of current conditions and employment prospects, whilst the impact on longer-term expectations was muted.
Eurozone money growth slowed noticeably, but when you look closely, you'll find that's less to do with any significant change in household financial behaviour or situation, and more to do with the ECB choosing August as a month to withdraw a net Eu123bn in lending to the banking system. Bad timing, as it turns out, and you can be certain they are now putting it all back again.
