The team provides a detailed discussion analyzing the Bitcoin market correction in November 2025 following a new all-time high of approximately $126,000, questioning if this volatility signals a permanent cycle termination or a temporary mid-cycle reset. Arguments for the bear case hinge on evidence of diminishing returns and acceleration in cycle timing, suggesting the bull run may have ended prematurely. However, the conclusion supports the continuation thesis (65% probability), arguing that the reported ETF outflows are not true institutional selling but rather the mechanical unwinding of arbitrage basis trades. Comparative historical analysis shows the current 30% drawdown aligns with the necessary washouts seen in 2013 and 2021, which preceded secondary peaks. The analysis concludes that structural factors, including retail capitulation and anticipated 2026 fiscal stimulus, are setting the stage for a final leg up, forecasting a potential peak between $140,000 and $150,000 by mid-2026.
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