The team provides an extensive analysis of the current Bitcoin market, framing the price action in late 2025 as a critical standoff between equally compelling bullish and bearish scenarios. The bull case argues that the current cycle is fundamentally different due to an unprecedented surge in institutional demand via spot ETFs, a favorable macroeconomic environment of monetary easing, and improving regulatory clarity, suggesting a potential “supercycle” that invalidates historical patterns. Conversely, the bear case maintains that historical cycle precedents still hold, pointing to classic on-chain distribution from long-term holders, the price trading below the Short-Term Holder cost basis, and extreme speculative froth in the broader crypto ecosystem as strong indicators of an imminent market peak. Ultimately, the market’s trajectory will be determined by three key factors: a sustained move past the technical price points of $109,000 and $117,000, the continued strength of ETF inflows versus Long-Term Holder selling, and the resolution of the macroeconomic/monetary policy debate.
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