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It has been a tumultuous couple of weeks. I will make some general observations to start, and then some market observations behind the paywall at the end.
* American First politics in practice, particular in regards to Ukraine, but with the application of tariffs as well, has probably ended the various independence movements in developed countries. From where I sit, no sane Quebecker, Welsh, Scottish, Flemish or Catalonian person can think being a small nation in this new world makes sense.
* In all likelihood, all real changes caused by Brexit, are likely to be reversed, in practice, if not name.
* The beginning of the end of the US as a reserve currency
* The beginning of the end of the preferential treatment given to US corporates in terms of tax and market access, even if negotiations to reduce tariffs are successful.
* Bond markets are correctly (in my view) signally reflation, while equities seem to think deflation
* Probably the only lasting change from this Trump administration will be the remilitarisation of Europe and Japan, and the corresponding weakening of the US as the leading military power.
* The FT reported the head of the British Military was in Beijing - this was not announced by the UK government, but reported by Chinese media. This is the first time this has happened in 10 years. Is the UK looking to do a deal with China? Or acting as a go between? Perhaps the US is not the only nation capable of pulling geo-political surprises.
