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SPY/RSP
The speaker provides a bullish outlook on SPY (S&P 500 ETF) and RSP (equal-weighted S&P 500), noting that the market remains near all-time highs with ongoing basing patterns that could allow for a breakout higher. There’s potential for a thrust upward toward 697 level after a four-day base, though a decisive breakthrough may not happen immediately and could require multiple attempts; failure to clear it in the next couple of weeks might lead to a rollover. Overall, the setup appears positive for Monday and suggests a rally is likely, with selective stocks setting up well in a broadly supportive large-cap environment.
QQQ/QQEW
For QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF) and QQQE (equal-weighted Nasdaq-100 ETF), the analysis highlights a shift from a prior downtrend, with recent strength pushing above the 5 and 10 SMAs as a positive sign. However, significant resistance remains at the 20/21 EMA and especially the 50 SMA, where price has faced rejection despite a near-decisive close over the 21 EMA. The speaker prefers QQQE for its equal-weighting and sees basing with stubborn overhead levels; follow-through on the next trading day (Monday) is hoped for to enable growth/tech stocks to advance meaningfully, though the market remains selective.
IWM/MDY
IWM (Russell 2000/small-cap ETF) and MDY (S&P MidCap 400 ETF) show constructive basing without major issues, remaining above key moving averages while working through a downtrend line. IWM features a multi-day (one-to-five day) base with potential to break higher, and nothing appears wrong technically in either chart. The speaker views these as supportive for broader market strength, particularly if SPY leads a breakout, positioning small- and mid-caps for upside participation in a less volatile environment.
VIX
The VIX (volatility index) presents a concerning picture with persistently elevated levels, having trended mostly above 17 since October and stubbornly refusing to decline meaningfully. The speaker expresses hope for a drop back to the 13 area to allow the market to “chill” with reduced choppiness, as current high volatility has been “killing” many traders. Until volatility eases significantly, the market is likely to stay range-bound or selective, reinforcing the advice to avoid forcing trades in unfavorable conditions.
