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SPY/SPYG/SPYV
SPY is currently facing a key resistance level after forming a short three-day base, with potential follow-through to the upside on Monday—possibly breaking above, pulling back, and then breaking higher again—to confirm strength toward higher levels overall. However, growth-oriented SPYG remains muted and is trading under declining moving averages in what appears to be an underside retest, with shorter-term averages looking weak and suggesting only short covering rather than robust bullish momentum. In contrast, value-focused SPYV is showing genuine breakout strength, aligning with clear sector rotation into value names (e.g., Coca-Cola, Pepsi, Walmart, Target, Costco), which are driving much of the market’s underlying progress while growth lags. (Not financial advice or stock recommendations for those listed above)
QQQ/QQEW
QQQ continues to underperform significantly and remains below key moving averages with substantial work needed to reclaim prior levels; would only become more constructive on growth once it reclaims above the 10/21/50 MAs and re-enters a previous range for basing. Similarly, QQEW (equal-weight Nasdaq/growth proxy) is theoretically in a bear market, having failed to decisively break above important resistance zones from last year’s breakout period (September–October), creating the opposite technical setup compared to that prior strong advance and warranting caution for those heavily positioned in growth stocks.
IWM/MDY
IWM (Russell 2000/small-caps) is performing strongly, having returned above all major moving averages with good recent strength, though it still requires follow-through confirmation (potentially with a breakout, pullback, and retest pattern) to solidify the move. The speaker highlights positive developments in related Russell indices, including IWO (Russell Growth) showing signs of recovery and IWN (Russell Value) “killing it,” reinforcing that small-cap value in particular is participating robustly in the current rotation and supporting the case for a potentially strong upcoming bull phase if momentum continues.
VIX
The VIX picture is becoming increasingly concerning, noting a “scary” setup where repeated pushes above certain levels have historically led to volatility ramps, as moving averages are starting to turn up and coil in a way that suggests impending volatility expansion (though timing is uncertain). Unless the VIX drops back below ~15, the cautious stance remains intact, especially over the next 2–3 months; for now, the speaker advises enjoying the current environment but staying vigilant for a shift after this bull phase, as leverage has already been removed in areas like software while volatility coils build.
