The 2026 Mid terms
SENATE
Republicans are entering the 2026 midterms with a 53-47 majority in the Senate (including the two independents who caucus with the Democrats). This cycle, 35 Senate seats are up for election, including special elections to permanently fill the Ohio seat JD Vance vacated to become vice president and the Florida seat Marco Rubio left to be secretary of state.
Nine senators are retiring — five Republicans and four Democrats — creating 11 open seats, as Democrats defend nine incumbent seats and Republicans defend 15. To retake the Senate, Democrats must hold all of their seats and flip four Republican-held ones — a difficult task even given the fact that the party out of power typically gains ground in midterms.
The fight for the Senate would center on four crucial states: Maine, North Carolina, Michigan and Georgia.
THE PRESIDENT
The results from the latest New York Times/Siena University poll show that, one year in, the second Trump coalition has unraveled. The major demographic shifts of the last election have snapped back, and Democrats have regained their usual advantage among young, nonwhite and low-turnout voters in the race for control of Congress. Only 40 percent of registered voters say they approve of Mr. Trump’s performance, the poll found.
THE HOUSE
The battle for control of the House of Representatives this fall will be decided by a small fraction of the chamber’s seats. Republicans are clinging to a five-seat edge, the narrowest margin in modern times.
The nation’s political climate is volatile, and much can change between now and November. But at the start of the year, only a small number of seats are seen as genuinely competitive, magnifying the stakes of individual House races that routinely cost tens of millions of dollars.
The clearest Democratic pathway to a majority — and the power to serve as a check on President Trump and his legislative agenda — is defending the party’s most vulnerable incumbents and flipping a handful of Republican-held seats.
The Cook Political Report rates just 18 seats as tossup races — four held by Democrats and 14 by Republicans. But the map is evolving and Cook recently shifted 18 House races in Democrats’ direction, a sign of the party’s momentum and Mr. Trump’s struggles.
Of the House’s 435 seats, the vast majority, 375, are rated as “solid” for one party or the other — meaning they are essentially noncompetitive. Another two dozen races are seen as likely to favor one party, while 18 are in the more competitive “lean” category.
To get to the House majority, Democrats would need to hold all of their solid and likely seats, sweep the 13 seats that lean toward their party and win at least seven of the 18 tossups, according to The Cook Political Report.
