I made several gloomy predictions for 2025 that did not occur.
So, now, like a lousy gambler, I am doubling down on those gloomy predictions and reiterating some of them for 2026!
A broken clock is correct twice a day! I will be a glorious Nostradamus in 2026!
1. Global recession strikes.
I incorrectly predicted that we’d have a recession in 2025, so how about 2026? I asked Perplexity.ai, and most experts say my prediction is wrong. Screw them. I say that the US unemployment rate will rise above 7%. Tariffs send the world into a downward spiral.
2. Renewables Overtake Coal as Top Global Power Source.
Renewables will generate over 6,000 terrawatts, more than at any other time in history, and surpassing coal for the first time.
3. Bitcoin revisits its 300-week moving average.
BTC’s bear market deepens. Bitcoin’s 2025 peak was approximately $125k, so it must drop by at least 50%, meaning it will likely dip below $70k, and possibly as low as $50k, which is near its current 300-week moving average.
Many analysts think the 200-week moving average represented the floor of BTC’s price, but with diminishing returns, the new floor is the 300-week moving average, which BTC tagged in March 2020 and crossed in November 2022. All bear markets must now cross the 300-week moving average, not just the 200-week.
By the end of 2026, BTC will be climbing back from its cycle low, but it won’t revisit $100k in 2026 (except maybe in the first quarter).
4. One in four light vehicle sales will be electric.
Although electric car sales in the USA may decline, the rest of the world will continue adopting them aggressively, reaching an all-time high in market share.
5. Democrats win back the US House of Representatives
Midterm elections are rarely good news for the incumbent US President.
6. Republicans retain the Senate.
A divided Congress plagues the lame-duck period of Trump’s final term.
7. MSTR drops 80% from its all-time high and dips to $100.
In 2025, Strategy was once worth $543. In 2026, it will be worth $100.
8. Humans will revisit the Moon in a flyby.
NASA will successfully launch the Artemis II mission, sending four astronauts around the moon in the first crewed lunar mission since 1972. They will NOT land on the Moon.
9. I’ll finish The Unseen Africa.
I’ll stay in Chile until it’s done!
To see my previous forecasts, check out my predictions for 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025.
Feedback
Email me at ft@francistapon.com or leave an anonymous voicemail that I could use on the podcast at Speakpipe.
Connect
Send me an anonymous voicemail at SpeakPipe.com/FTapon
You can post comments, ask questions, and sign up for my newsletter at
https://wanderlearn.com
.
If you like this podcast, subscribe and share!
On social media, my username is always FTapon. Connect with me on:
* YouTube
* TikTok
* Tumblr
Sponsors
1. My Patrons sponsored this show! Claim your monthly reward by becoming a patron for as little as $2/month at https://Patreon.com/FTapon
2. For the best travel credit card, get one of the Chase Sapphire cards and get 75-100k bonus miles!
3. Get $5 when you sign up for Roamless, my favorite global eSIM with its unlimited hotspot & data that never expires! Use code LR32K
4. Or get 5% off when you sign up with Saily, another global eSIM with a built-in VPN & ad blocker.
5. Get 25% off when you sign up for Trusted Housesitters, a site that helps you find sitters or homes to sit in.
6. Start your podcast with my company, Podbean, and get one month free!
7. In the United States, I recommend trading cryptocurrency with Kraken.
8. Outside the USA, trade crypto with Binance and get 5% off your trading fees!
9. For backpacking gear, buy from Gossamer Gear.
