In today’s episode of **Dave Talks Politics**:
* Greenland Meltdown Ties to NSS/Monroe
* Europe’s Blind Spot Exposed?
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1. **Recapping Europe’s meltdown – tariffs and backlash**
- Building on prior: Trump’s Jan 18, 2026 tariff threats (10% rising) on eight EU nations trigger outrage – Macron deems “unacceptable,” Starmer urges diplomacy, Metsola’s EU Parliament speech on Denmark/Greenland sovereignty earns standing ovation.
- NYT/FT (Jan 19-20, 2026): Leaders warn of “downward spiral” in alliances; Bessent at Davos downplays, mocks EU “working groups” – markets react with gold highs, bond sell-offs.
- Piers Morgan (Jan 19, 2026): Bremmer/Mearsheimer clash highlights shift to “imperialism,” alliance erosion – Bremmer on relational fallout, Mearsheimer on order breakdown.
2. **Linking to US National Security Strategy – hemispheric focus**
- White House NSS (Dec 2025): Explicit “Trump Corollary” to Monroe Doctrine prioritizes Western Hemisphere dominance – secure borders, counter migration/cartels, exclude foreign powers like China/Russia from assets/routes.
- Greenland fits: Labeled key for “hemispheric defense” – Arctic routes/resources (rare earths, minerals) vital against rivals; NSS questions European “reliability,” pushes US control over strategic territories.
- Consistency: Ties Venezuela oil grabs, Panama Canal interest – Greenland as northern “front door” to block incursions, per Dans (US Arctic Commission).
3. **Monroe Doctrine revival – “Donroe” and Arctic stakes**
- Monroe (1823): Warned Europe off Americas – Trump’s “Donroe Doctrine” (his term) expands to exclude all extra-hemispheric threats, justifies interventions for US security/economy.
- Arctic angle: NSS views Greenland as Western Hemisphere extension (despite geography) – melting ice opens routes (NSR parallels), resources (copper/nickel/zinc) – withdrawal from non-US interests enables focus here.
- NPR/Brookings (Jan 2026): Echoes Roosevelt’s interventionism – Trump’s NSS signals “neo-imperialism,” prioritizing hemisphere over global entanglements.
4. **Withdrawal from non-US interests – NATO/EU/Middle East pivot**
- NSS: De-emphasizes Europe (questions ally reliability, pushes far-right “patriotic” parties), Middle East (”avoid forever wars”), focuses on US-led cease-fires (Ukraine/Syria).
- Greenland consistency: Tariffs coerce Nato allies, risk base pullouts – aligns with “America First” unwind, reducing subsidies to EU/Nato while securing Arctic edge.
- CSIS/DGAP (Jan 2026): Not alliances, but US power/resources – Greenland’s minerals trillions in value; European appeals to Nato ignored as Trump eyes unilateral gains.
5. **Why didn’t Europe see this coming? – Ignored 6 months ago**
- Trump first raised Greenland seriously mid-2025 (post-inauguration, tied to NSS drafts) – Europeans dismissed as “bombastic,” focused on Ukraine/Russia instead of engaging on Arctic investments/security pacts.
- FT/EPC (Jan 2026): Months of Danish diplomacy fruitless – EU assumed bluff, underestimated “Trump Corollary” signals in NSS; troop exercise backfired as “provocation.”
- Hindsight: NSS released Dec 2025 outlined hemisphere priority – Europe prioritized Mercosur deals, arms to Ukraine, missing chance for preemptive talks.
6. **Kaja Kallas’ role – Russia focus over Greenland action?**
- As EU foreign chief, Kallas (statements Jan 8-19, 2026): Called US threats “extremely concerning,” warned divisions benefit China/Russia, pushed Nato-internal solutions – met Danish/Greenlandic officials, urged no “Nato doom talk.”
- Critique: Constant Russia complaints (Ukraine support, sanctions) – but absent on proactive Greenland diplomacy until crisis; Al Jazeera/Reuters: EU discussions reactive, no early engagement despite 6-month warnings.
- X posts (Jan 2026): Kallas stresses “hold ground” without fight, solidarity with Denmark – yet critics note EU’s slow anti-coercion tool, playing into Trump’s mockery.
7. **Economic and alliance fallout – hemisphere vs. global order**
- NSS: Withdraw from overcommitments – tariffs hit German exports (down 9.4%), force EU diversification (Mercosur) while US secures Arctic resources.
- Broader: Risks Russia/China Arctic plays (Svalbard/NSR) – Dodds (FT, Jan 2026): “Great Game” spheres emerge, Europe caught in middle.
- Ukraine/ME: NSS deprioritizes “forever wars” – cease-fires on US terms, reducing Nato/EU leverage.
8. **Historical parallels – Monroe’s echo in 2026**
- Original Monroe: Kept Europe out – Trump’s corollary: Excludes all rivals, justifies grabs (Venezuela/Greenland) for security/resources.
- IISS/Brookings (Jan 2026): “Donroe” reaches Arctic – shift from cooperation to dominance, upending “High North, Low Tension.”
- Olmsted (DIIS, Jan 2026): Greenland not military like Venezuela, but NSS logic demands control.
9. **Europe’s blind spot – underestimating “America First”**
- Why no early engagement: Assumed Trump’s 2019/2025 raises were bluster – focused on Russia, ignored NSS hemisphere signals.
- Kallas et al.: Russia-centric (sanctions, warnings) – but Greenland inaction highlights EU’s reactive posture, per Politico/Euronews (Jan 2026).
- Wake-up: Now scrambling for “diplomatic deterrence,” but NSS consistency suggests Trump’s endgame is withdrawal, not partnership.
10. **Global implications – multipolar risks rising**
- NSS: Hemisphere secure, rivals emboldened elsewhere – China on Taiwan parallels, Russia in Europe.
- BeHorizon/CFR (Jan 2026): Revival risks “polycentric” carve-ups – Europe must adapt or face isolation.
- Olsvig: Chaos if order fails – small states like Greenland/Estonia most vulnerable.
11. **What this means – consistent doctrine, Europe’s oversight**
- Ties perfectly: NSS/Monroe frame Greenland as hemisphere must-have for routes/resources, enabling non-US withdrawal (Nato/EU/ME).
- Oversight: Dismissed 6mo warnings; Kallas’ Russia fixation sidelined proactive Arctic talks – now meltdown exposes dependencies.
OK team, so what does all this mean? Well, Europe’s Greenland meltdown aligns seamlessly with Trump’s NSS and “Donroe” Doctrine – prioritizing Western Hemisphere (including Greenland’s Arctic routes/resources) while withdrawing from Nato/EU/Middle East entanglements. They missed engaging seriously 6 months ago, assuming bluster; Kallas, fixated on Russia complaints, has been reactive at best – a blind spot now risking alliance fractures.
Now lets do 3 questions with dave:
1. If Trump’s Greenland push fits the NSS/Monroe “Trump Corollary” for hemisphere dominance and Arctic gains, is this strategic consistency – or ego-driven overreach Europe should’ve foreseen 6 months ago?
2. With withdrawals from Nato/EU/Middle East baked into the doctrine, why didn’t Europe engage on Greenland earlier – and has Kallas’ Russia focus blinded her to this broader unwind?
3. Hemisphere secure with Greenland resources/routes, rivals elsewhere – does Europe’s meltdown prove they ignored NSS signals, handing Trump leverage in a multipolar shift?
