In today’s episode of **What’s going on with BRICS**:
**Houses Priced**
**In Gold**
**Crash 40-70%**
**From 2021 Peaks**
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### Commodities Boom – Metals Surging in USD
1. **Silver’s massive 2025 rally**
- Started around $29-30/oz and hit highs above $80/oz by late December – a 140-170% gain (Livemint, Dec 26, 2025; Watcher Guru, Dec 20, 2025).
- Fifth straight year of supply deficits, with 149 million oz shortfall projected (Bloomberg, Dec 30, 2025).
- One of the biggest surges ever – shows raw material costs spiking amid global demand.
2. **Copper joins the boom**
- Hit $13,000+ per ton by January 2026, up 35% yearly – biggest jump in 15 years (FT, Jan 6, 2026).
- Demand from AI, EVs, grids outstrips supply disruptions.
- Bullish macro sign: Economy expanding, but inflation risk from higher costs.
3. **Why commodities boom in USD fiat**
- USD-priced globally – demand explosion (green tech, AI) + shortages drive prices up even if dollar weakens.
- Inflation hedge: Investors pile in as fiat loses purchasing power (LongtermTrends, Jan 3, 2026).
- BRICS stockpiling adds steady buying – diversification from dollar assets.
4. **Energy-metals link – strong correlation**
- Energy is 30-45% of mining costs (electricity, diesel for crushing/grinding) – correlation holds (0.65 copper-gold past year, LongtermTrends, Jan 3, 2026).
- No dislocation in 2025: Demand overrides input inflation; pass through keeps prices aligned (FT mining reports, Dec 10, 2025).
5. **Quick math: Copper/silver priced in oil (energy input cost)**
- Copper ~5 barrels oil equivalent per ton extracted (30 GJ/ton at 6 GJ/barrel).
- Silver ~17 barrels per ton (100 GJ/ton).
- At $60 oil: Copper energy ~$300/ton (2.5% of $13k price); silver ~$1,020/ton (tiny % of $2.5M+ value per ton).
- Energy significant but not dominant – labor/capex lead costs; demand drives prices (Silver Institute, Nov 13, 2025; World Bank mining data).
### USD Devaluation Exposed – Priced in Metals (2023-2025)
6. **USD vs. DXY basket – weakening but not collapse**
- DXY down ~10% in 2025 – near 3-month low, above 2008 crisis support (CoinDesk, Dec 23, 2025).
- Weak vs. majors like euro/yen amid tariffs and uncertainty.
- For normies: DXY drop means USD buying less foreign stuff – but commodities still boom in dollars due to demand.
7. **USD priced in gold – real devaluation**
- 2023-2024: Gold up 27.7% → USD down -21.7% in gold terms.
- 2024-2025: Gold up 68.2% → USD down -40.6% in gold terms.
- Full period (end-2023 to end-2025): Gold up 114.7% → USD down -53.4% in gold terms (dollar buys half as much gold as 2 years ago) (Macrotrends/USAGOLD, Jan 2026 data).
8. **USD priced in silver – even sharper drop**
- 2023-2024: Silver up 21.8% → USD down -17.9% in silver terms.
- 2024-2025: Silver up 176% → USD down -63.8% in silver terms.
- Full period: Silver up 236% → USD down -70.2% in silver terms (dollar buys ~30% of the silver it did in 2023) (Kitco/TradingEconomics, Jan 2026).
9. **USD priced in copper – industrial hit**
- 2023-2024: Copper up 6% → USD down -5.7% in copper terms.
- 2024-2025: Copper up 44.4% → USD down -30.8% in copper terms.
- Full period: Copper up 53.1% → USD down -34.7% in copper terms (dollar buys two-thirds the copper as 2023) (TradingEconomics/Macrotrends, Jan 2026).
### Property Disruptions – Double Hit in Real and Gold Terms
10. **The double loss for homeowners – nominal/real vs. gold terms**
- Nominal prices often flat or slight up; real (inflation-adjusted) down 10-30% from 2021 peaks in many Western markets.
- But priced in gold: Massive falls – dollar house prices stagnant, but gold’s surge means homes buy far fewer ounces (LongtermTrends/PricedInGold, Jan 2026).
- For normies: Your house might cost the same dollars, but buys half the gold it did in 2021 – you’ve lost real purchasing power twice over.
11. **US median home – down 45-60% in gold terms**
- 2021 peak: ~220-250 ounces (median ~$400k / ~$1,800 gold oz).
- 2025/early 2026: ~95-137 ounces (median ~$420k / ~$4,430 gold oz).
- Fall: Down 45-60% in gold terms from 2021 peak – double hit as nominal flat but gold explodes (PricedInGold/JM Bullion charts, Jan 2026).
12. **UK average house – down 40-55% in gold terms**
- 2021 peak: ~250-280 ounces (average ~£280k / ~$1,800 oz equivalent).
- 2025: ~128-182 ounces (average ~£270k-£300k / high gold).
- Fall: Down 40-55% in gold terms – nominal flat, real down 15-20%, gold rally amplifies (LongtermTrends, Jan 2026).
13. **Canada median home – down 45-60% in gold terms**
- 2021 peak: High bubble levels (~300+ ounces adjusted).
- 2025: Down 20-30% real from peak – in gold terms ~50%+ fall (similar to US/UK pattern) (Global Property Guide, Oct 2025 into 2026).
14. **New Zealand average house – one of the sharpest**
- 2021 peak: High ratio (~281 ounces).
- 2025: Down 31% real nominal – in gold terms ~60-70% fall from peak (CoreLogic, Jan 5, 2026).
15. **Australia – boom exception**
- Still up nominal/real in many cities – in gold terms down 30-40% from 2021 peaks despite gains (gold outruns) (SQM Research, Jan 3, 2026).
16. **Other Western markets (Europe examples)**
- Germany/France/Italy: Nominal flat/down 5-10%, real down 10-20% from 2021 – in gold terms ~40-55% fall (BIS Q2 2025/Fitch Ratings, Dec 10, 2024 into 2026).
- Japan/South Korea: Stagnant nominal, real declines – gold terms down 35-50% (Knight Frank, Dec 31, 2024).
17. **Why houses fall in real/gold terms while commodities boom**
- High interest rates crush mortgages – buyers sidelined, demand drops.
- Commodities: Global industrial demand (AI/green) + shortages drive USD prices up.
- Real estate local: Rates, migration, insurance kill affordability – inflation outpaces nominal gains.
18. **What if central banks can’t prop rates low?**
- If inflation forces hikes: Mortgage costs soar, buyers vanish – real prices crash 20-50%+ (2008-style).
- Foreclosures spike, banks stressed, recession risk.
- Props like QE end – bubbles burst to reset affordability.
OK team, so what does all this mean? Well, it means huge market changes are happening right under our noses – commodities booming on tech/green demand, while property crashes in real terms from rate hikes and local shocks.
1. Commodities triple by 2035 – super-cycle or bubble fueled by AI and green tech?
2. Houses down 30% real from peaks in NZ/Florida/London – is this the great reset, or just the start of bigger falls?
3. Copper booming while homes crash – why bet on metals over bricks in a multipolar world?
