Welcome back, team! In this episode of Dave Talks Politics, hi, I’m Dave, and I’ll be talking politics. Today, team, let’s talk about the whirlwind shaking global markets and geopolitics—from gold’s sharp fall, the yen carry trade reversal, Trump’s new Fed chair pick, escalating Iran tensions, to the massive Epstein files drop and the controversy around alleged takedowns.
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**1. GOLD’S EPIC PLUNGE**
1. Gold peaked above $5,594 an ounce on inflation fears, dollar weakness, and safe-haven demand.
2. Then reversed sharply—dropped over 9-10% in one day to around $4,891-$4,895 by January 31.
3. Silver fell harder—down nearly 30% from $120 highs.
4. Triggered by Warsh Fed nomination easing ultra-dovish rate fears—dollar rose, real yields climbed.
5. Still up strongly year-to-date; AI and central bank demand support higher targets ahead.
6. Volatility high—shakeout ongoing.
**2. YEN CARRY TRADE REVERSAL**
1. Carry trade borrowed cheap yen to chase higher yields abroad—built heavy leverage.
2. BoJ rate hikes to 0.75% squeeze positions.
3. Yen strengthens; funds repatriate.
4. Impacts US equities, bonds, leveraged assets.
5. Liquidity tightens globally—hits stocks, crypto, emerging markets.
6. Unwind accelerating but not yet systemic.
7. Currency shifts pressure exporters.
**3. NEW FED CHAIR PICK**
1. Trump nominates Kevin Warsh—former Fed governor, inflation hawk.
2. Replaces Powell in May, pending Senate approval.
3. Markets viewed as stabilizing choice.
4. Warsh focuses on inflation control over easy money.
5. Tension likely with Trump’s lower-rate push.
6. Tightening phases historically precede innovation growth.
7. Deregulation needed to amplify.
**4. IRAN TENSIONS ESCALATING**
1. Trump warns of severe strikes without nuclear deal.
2. US carriers and forces build in region.
3. Iran deploys IRGC vessels, plans live-fire drills in Strait of Hormuz February 1-2.
4. Strait carries 20-25% of global oil—disruption risks major price spikes.
5. Iran threatens retaliation against US interests.
6. US warns against threats to forces or shipping.
7. Escalation risks high.
**5. EPSTEIN FILES DROP AND CONTROVERSY**
1. DOJ released over 3 million additional pages January 30.
2. Includes videos, images, emails, reports.
3. Mentions Trump (old/denied), Clinton, Musk, others.
4. Heavy redactions common.
5. One file briefly removed then restored.
6. Critics question completeness and selective release.
7. Transparency remains partial.
**BOTTOM LINE**
Gold fell sharply, yen carry trade unwound, Warsh was nominated for Fed chair, Iran-US tensions rose with naval activity in the Strait of Hormuz, and the latest Epstein files release included heavy redactions amid cover-up claims.
