In today’s episode of **What’s going on with BRICS**:
**Top Risks**
**2026**
**Global Chaos**
**Ranked**
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Coming to you today from [location to be filled by owner].
### What’s in the News
1. **The absence of global leadership – the biggest risk**
- No single country or group is willing or able to step up and lead on the world’s toughest problems.
- The US is focused inward on domestic issues, China is cautious and dealing with its own economic slowdown, Russia is aggressive but limited in reach, and Europe remains fragmented and unable to act decisively.
- This vacuum leaves critical global challenges like climate change, pandemics, supply chain disruptions, and trade disputes largely unaddressed.
- For normies: Imagine a world where there’s no referee or captain – everyone is just fighting for their own ball, and the game gets messier every day.
2. **Trump 2.0 – unpredictable and disruptive**
- Trump’s return brings a second term full of aggressive tariffs, strained alliances, and a heavy focus on domestic priorities.
- Expect higher volatility across markets, foreign policy, and trade – less predictability for both friends and adversaries.
- His “America First” approach 2.0 could mean sudden policy shifts that ripple globally.
- Riff material: One leader with one phone can move markets and unsettle allies overnight – this is the wildcard at the top of the list.
3. **The Middle East – no clear off-ramp**
- Ongoing tensions in Gaza, between Israel and Iran, and across the region show no obvious path to resolution.
- Iran’s nuclear program continues to advance, proxy conflicts spread, and escalation risks remain elevated.
- Oil prices, refugee flows, and broader instability are all on the table if things get worse.
- Riff material: A powder keg with multiple fuses lit – one wrong move could light up the entire region.
4. **Ukraine – frozen conflict with no end in sight**
- The war drags on without either side able to achieve a decisive victory.
- US aid fatigue is growing, Europe is under strain, and neither side has a clear exit strategy.
- This means continued energy and food shocks, refugee pressures, and NATO fatigue.
- Riff material: A war that’s become a slow bleed – no winner, just exhaustion.
5. **China slowdown – internal focus over external risk**
- China’s economic slowdown, property crisis, and youth unemployment are forcing leadership to prioritize domestic stability.
- This reduces the likelihood of aggressive foreign moves, like a Taiwan invasion in the near term.
- But it also means less demand for commodities and slower global growth.
- Riff material: China is turning inward – less threat, but also less engine for the world economy.
6. **AI arms race – no rules, no guardrails**
- The US-China competition in artificial intelligence is accelerating without any global governance framework.
- Military and economic implications are enormous – whoever wins could dominate the future.
- No agreements or limits mean the race could spiral quickly.
- Riff material: The new arms race isn’t nuclear – it’s code, and there are no treaties to slow it down.
7. **Climate tipping points – multiplier of instability**
- Extreme weather, mass migration, food insecurity, and resource scarcity are accelerating.
- These create geopolitical tensions – competition for water, arable land, and energy.
- Climate becomes a force multiplier for conflicts and displacement.
- Riff material: Mother Nature doesn’t care about borders – she’s forcing new geopolitical realities.
8. **Global South fragmentation – no unified voice**
- Emerging markets are diverging – some align with the West, others with alternative powers.
- No single bloc or voice emerges – competing interests and alignments.
- Opportunities and risks for influence in the multipolar world.
- Riff material: The Global South isn’t one team – it’s a collection of players picking sides.
9. **Populist backlash – eroding institutions**
- Rising populism in both the West and emerging markets.
- Attacks on institutions, policy swings, and nationalist surges.
- Creates instability from elections and domestic unrest.
- Riff material: The people are pushing back – sometimes against the very systems meant to keep order.
10. **US domestic polarization – weakens global power**
- Deep internal divisions lead to gridlock on foreign policy, trade, and alliances.
- Polarization limits America’s ability to act consistently abroad.
- Internal chaos becomes a risk multiplier for the rest of the world.
- Riff material: The US can’t lead if it can’t agree with itself.
OK team, so what does all this mean? Well, it means 2026 is shaping up as a high-risk year – leadership vacuum, Trump unpredictability, and multipolar tensions could shake everything.
1. If no one is willing or able to lead the world anymore, are we heading for a chaotic free-for-all where might makes right?
2. Trump 2.0 at the top of the risk list – will his tariffs and inward focus finally break the old order for good?
3. With AI arms race and climate tipping points accelerating, is 2026 the year the world wakes up to how fragile the current system really is?
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