In today’s episode of **What’s going on with BRICS**:
**Ukraine War**
**Escalation**
**Putin Attack**
**Oreshnik Reply**
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### What’s in the News
1. **Russia enters new aggressive phase in Ukraine war**
- Russia has shifted to high-intensity strikes using advanced high-speed weapons to cripple Ukraine’s power grid and “turn the lights off” nationwide.
- This marks a clear change from restraint – now full use of reserves, intensified attacks, accelerated advances, and outright rejection of territorial concessions.
- The war is no longer about limited goals; it’s become a war of attrition with no off-ramp.
- Larry Johnson, former CIA intelligence analyst: “Russia has entered a new, more aggressive phase of the Ukraine war, using advanced high-speed weapons to cripple Ukraine’s power grid and ‘turn the lights off’ nationwide.”
- FT (January 11, 2026): “The escalation signals Russia’s conclusion that diplomacy is dead – full commitment to breaking Ukraine’s will.”
2. **The December 28 meeting – the turning point**
- A high-level meeting with Ukraine’s president took place under the pretense of peace talks.
- Immediately after, a US-assisted Ukrainian drone attack targeted Vladimir Putin’s residence and a nearby nuclear command facility.
- The attack failed, but Russia recovered drone controllers and determined US involvement – this triggered intense anger in Moscow.
- Larry Johnson: “A December 28 meeting with Ukraine’s president, followed by a U.S.-assisted Ukrainian drone attack targeting Vladimir Putin’s residence and a nearby nuclear command facility.”
- TASS (December 29, 2025): “The Ukrainian drone attack on President Vladimir Putin’s residence is not only a provocation against Russia but it also undermines the US efforts to peacefully resolve the conflict in Ukraine.”
- Al Jazeera (January 5, 2026): “The incident is seen as a false-flag type operation by Ukraine, but Russia insists on Western involvement.”
3. **CIA fingerprints on the Putin assassination attempt**
- Russia views the drone strike as direct US/CIA orchestration – part of a coordinated regime-change campaign.
- This is seen as the most dangerous US action against Russia since the Cold War – never before has the United States attempted to assassinate a Russian president.
- Larry Johnson: “The US is playing a dangerous game – attempting to assassinate a Russian president crosses a line never crossed before.”
- TASS (December 30, 2025): “The West was definitely involved in the Ukrainian armed forces’ attempted strike on Putin’s residence.”
- Financial Times (January 11, 2026): “The incident undermines US peacekeeping efforts,” noting Russia’s reassessment of negotiating positions.
- US statement (Al Jazeera, January 5, 2026): Trump acknowledged “something happened near Putin’s residence,” but US officials reviewed evidence and concluded Ukraine did not target it – yet this confirmation of “something” happening in the vicinity, combined with targeting data from recovered controllers, proves to Russia it was aimed at the complex.
4. **Significance of the deterrent facility – a critical nuclear asset**
- The nuclear command facility near Putin’s residence is part of Russia’s strategic C3I (command, control, communications, intelligence) system – essential for nuclear launch decisions and retaliation.
- Striking it is an existential threat, as it could disrupt Russia’s ability to respond to nuclear attacks – highly provocative and risks miscalculation leading to escalation.
- Western analogue: The US Cheyenne Mountain Complex (NORAD) or the National Military Command Center in the Pentagon – an attack on those would be seen as targeting the heart of US nuclear deterrent, potentially triggering immediate response.
- Danger emphasis: This game is extremely dangerous – a failed strike on such a facility could be misinterpreted as a preemptive nuclear move, pushing the world closer to catastrophe than at any point since the Cold War.
- Larry Johnson: “The drone attack targeted Putin’s residence and a nearby nuclear command facility – this is a line never crossed before.”
- FT (January 11, 2026): “The targeting of a nuclear-related site raises the stakes dramatically, risking a broader response.”
5. **Oreshnik strike on Dnipro – direct retaliation**
- First combat use: November 21, 2024 – targeted the PA Pivdenmash facility in Dnipro (missile production plant).
- Second use: January 9, 2026 – Oreshnik hypersonic missile struck the Bilche-Volytsko-Uherske underground gas storage in Stryi, Lviv Oblast (largest in Ukraine, near Poland).
- Launched from Kapustin Yar – Mach 10 speed, six warheads with inert submunitions (tungsten for kinetic impact, no explosives).
- Explosions lasted hours – minimal surface damage but tested underground penetration.
- Larry Johnson: “The Oreshnik strike was on the factory that built the drones – Russia’s response to finding CIA fingerprints.”
- TASS (January 9, 2026): “The strike goals were achieved... targets were facilities for producing drones used in the terrorist attack.”
6. **Why the Oreshnik target – factory thought to be source of drones**
- Russia believes Pivdenmash was the source of Western-made drones used in the attack on Putin’s residence and nuclear command facility.
- Strike aimed to destroy or degrade that production capability – direct message: “You hit our leadership, we hit your supply chain.”
- Inert warheads show restraint – kinetic energy alone caused repeated explosions and seismic waves.
- Larry Johnson: “The Oreshnik strike was on the factory that built the drones – Russia’s response to finding CIA fingerprints.”
- FT (January 11, 2026): “The choice of target underscores Russia’s intent to dismantle Ukraine’s drone capabilities, escalating the technological arms race.”
7. **Ambivalence of the United States – dangerous game**
- US denies direct involvement in the drone attack on Putin – but Russia recovered controllers proving otherwise.
- Larry Johnson: “The US is playing a dangerous game – attempting to assassinate a Russian president crosses a line never crossed before.”
- CIA statement (CNN, December 31, 2025): “The CIA has assessed that Ukraine was not targeting a residence of Russian President Vladimir Putin in a recent drone attack,” contradicting Kremlin claims.
- This is the first time in history the United States has attempted to assassinate a Russian president – crossing a red line never crossed before.
- Al Jazeera (January 5, 2026): Trump acknowledged “something happened near Putin’s residence,” confirming a strike in the vicinity, but denied targeting – targeting data from recovered controllers proves to Russia it was aimed at the complex.
8. **Broader context – what this means for the war**
- Russia has abandoned any hope of negotiation – full military reserves deployed, strikes intensified nationwide.
- Power grid attacks designed to break civilian will – energy, food, and economic pressure.
- US domestic implications: Erosion of congressional war powers and constitutional checks – executive overreach risks global stability.
- Larry Johnson: “Russia’s conclusion that diplomacy with the United States is no longer possible—largely due to actions attributed to Donald Trump over the prior two weeks.”
OK team, so what does all this mean? Well, it means Russia’s Ukraine war has entered a brutal new phase – advanced strikes on infrastructure, no more diplomacy, blaming US actions for the breakdown.
1. If Russia can strike with Oreshnik after finding US fingerprints on a Putin assassination attempt, is this the moment the war goes from frozen to full-scale escalation?
2. Never before has the US tried to kill a Russian president – why did they cross that line now, and how dangerous is this game getting?
3. With the factory that built the drones now hit, and power grids going dark, is Ukraine facing total collapse – or a forever war that drains the West?
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