In today’s episode of **What’s going on with BRICS**:
**Top Geo**
**News**
**Jan 10-11**
**2026**
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### What’s in the News
1. **Oreshnik strike analysis – Russia’s hypersonic warning**
- NPR (Jan 10, 2026): Russia launched Oreshnik hypersonic missile for second time (first Nov 21, 2024 on Dnipro), targeting Bilche-Volytsko-Uherske gas storage in Stryi, Lviv Oblast (largest in Ukraine, near Poland border).
- CNN (Jan 9, 2026): Missile from Kapustin Yar (900 miles away) – Mach 10 speed, six warheads with inert submunitions (tungsten for kinetic impact, no explosives). Explosions lasted hours, minimal damage to surface but tested underground penetration.
- Critical Threats (Jan 10, 2026): Quote from Medvedev: “Oreshnik could strike European/NATO troops in post-war Ukraine.” Slutsky: “Retaliation inevitable for red line violations.”
- Analysis: Psychological warfare – near NATO border to deter Western troop deployments/security guarantees; inert payloads signal testing/intimidation without full escalation.
- Riff material: Putin flexes “meteorite” missile – retaliation for Ukrainian drone on his residence – warning West while US distracted in Venezuela.
2. **Italy departs EU line – direct talks with Russia**
- Reuters (Jan 9, 2026): PM Meloni says “time has come for Europe to talk to Russia” – urges special EU envoy to unify voice, avoid “piecemeal disorder” favoring Putin.
- Politico (Jan 9, 2026): Quote: “I think Macron is right... Europe must speak with Russia.” Brussels Times (Jan 9, 2026): Meloni backs resuming high-level dialogue; supports reforms to global governance.
- Voennoedelo (Jan 9, 2026): Meloni emphasizes “sovereignty surge beyond proxy plays.”
- Analysis: First major EU crack – Italy prioritizes direct channel for energy/migration; risks splitting EU unity on Ukraine sanctions.
- Riff material: Meloni’s pivot shatters “unipolar standoffs” – fiscal pressures force pragmatism over ideology.
3. **What is China up to – Latin America pivot post-Venezuela**
- CSIS (Jan 9, 2026): China reassessing $67B investments; accelerating Belt and Road in Brazil/Peru/Bolivia to fill US vacuum. Satellite imagery shows new port/rail builds.
- Energy Policy Columbia (Jan 7, 2026): Quote: “US intervention jeopardizes Venezuelan oil to China’s teapot refineries – geopolitical risk rises for future LatAm investments.”
- SCMP (Jan 8, 2026): China finds “risks and opportunities” – reassesses US policy; Modern Diplomacy (Jan 9, 2026): Protecting interests key to 15th Five-Year Plan.
- Analysis: Maduro loss hits “all-weather partner”; China uses quiet diplomacy/infrastructure to secure minerals/energy – avoids direct confrontation.
- Riff material: Beijing plays long game – while US grabs Maduro, China locks in regional ties, turning Venezuela crisis into opportunity.
4. **Lula’s Venezuela actions – regional mediation push**
- Reuters (Jan 3, 2026): Lula condemns US as “unacceptable line crossed” – calls for “Latin American-led transition,” rejects spheres of influence.
- Brasil de Fato (Jan 5, 2026): Quote: “Attacking countries violates international law – first step to chaos.” Al Jazeera (Jan 4, 2026): Joint statement with Mexico/Chile/Colombia rejects unilateral actions.
- Mexico News Daily (Jan 9, 2026): Phone call with Sheinbaum: Condemn US, defend multilateralism; Lula invites her to Brazil in May.
- Analysis: Positions Brazil as mediator – balances US pressure with solidarity; monitors border for refugees (no unusual movement yet).
- Riff material: Lula evokes “worst moments of interference” – urges UN response; Brazil’s cabinet emergency meeting shows regional alarm.
5. **Panama back on US radar – canal threats revive**
- Reuters (Jan 10, 2026): Trump renews “take back” Panama Canal call – cites high fees and Chinese influence in ports.
- Panama President Mulino (Jan 10, 2026): Quote: “Canal is ours – sovereignty non-negotiable.”
- Al Jazeera (Jan 10, 2026): US tariff threats loom; canal as leverage in hemisphere dominance push.
- Analysis: Post-Venezuela, US eyes strategic assets – Panama’s Chinese-built ports seen as threat; risks trade war.
- Riff material: Monroe Doctrine extends to canal – US “big stick” revival tests Latin sovereignty.
6. **Cuba invasion rumors – US buildup sparks fears**
- NPR (Jan 5, 2026): Increased US naval activity near Cuba – “contingency planning” post-Venezuela; 32 Cuban fighters killed in raid.
- NYT (Jan 5, 2026): Quote from Trump: “Cuba looks like it’s ready to fall... no income now.” Dismisses direct intervention.
- Al Jazeera (Jan 5, 2026): Cuba condemns as “threat” – economy buckling without Venezuela oil; shortages worsen.
- Analysis: Maduro loss cuts Cuban support; US warns but no invasion plans – psychological pressure.
- Riff material: Bay of Pigs redux? Trump predicts collapse – Cuba braces for economic siege.
7. **Argentina cutting China ties – or not?**
- Buenos Aires Times (Jan 7, 2026): Milei says “not breaking trade ties with China” – aligns with US but keeps commerce.
- Quote: “US trades with China... doesn’t mean I’m not deeply aligned [with America].”
- Reuters (Jan 9, 2026): Cancels some deals but renews currency swap; Macri warns against full cut.
- Analysis: Pragmatic pivot – farm/commodity exports rely on China; US push grows but no complete break.
- Riff material: Milei praises Trump but hedges – “not China’s vassal” but needs the cash; hidden card in negotiations.
8. **European leaders push NATO reform – boot US troops?**
- Politico (Jan 11, 2026): France/Germany discuss reducing US bases – “NATO must evolve or Europe goes alone.”
- Quote: “Venezuela raid fuels debate – transatlantic rift deepens.”
- NYT (Jan 6, 2026): Starmer/Von der Leyen “concern” but no condemnation – internal calls for independence.
- Analysis: Raid strains alliances – Europe questions US unilateralism; no formal cancel but momentum builds.
- Riff material: EU silent on raid but plots US boot – end of NATO as we know it?
OK team, so what does all this mean? Well, it means 2026 geopolitics is exploding – Oreshnik strikes, Italy-Russia talks, US hemisphere flex, and China quietly filling gaps. Power moves fast.
1. If Russia deploys Oreshnik while US grabs Venezuela, is this the new normal – tit-for-tat escalation across hemispheres?
2. Italy going direct to Russia and Argentina ditching China – are European and Latin leaders finally breaking free from US/EU control?
3. With Panama, Cuba, and Venezuela all on the US radar, is the Monroe Doctrine back in full force – and will it spark the next global flashpoint?
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