2024 was a bad year for Brazil’s economy and currency. The Brazilian Real fell more than 20% in value against the US dollar.
Currency weakness occurred along with higher interest rates. This is not a good thing.
Higher Brazilian interest rates mean a higher return on investments in the Brazilian Real. But if no one wants to buy the Real and get the higher rate, the currency will go down, higher rates or not.
Brazil’s real problem is government spending, and investors are not convinced the government is taking the right measures to solve the spending problem.
Brazilian sovereign bonds offer a big return. But, a weak currency can take that return down.
How will the currency do in 2025? Can’t say for sure. All we can do is follow the data.
