In this podcast, Nick Fabbri and Dr. Paul Monk discuss the fragility and instability of the global order following the collapse of the Soviet Union, and reflect on the nature of international relations and decision-making.
Key Discussion Points include:
- The Unipolar Moment and US Decline: Discussing Aaron Friedberg's 1988 book, The Weary Titan, which anticipated relative US decline just before the unipolar moment of the 1990s.
- Self-Inflicted Wounds: Examining the seismic shock of 9/11, the costly counterinsurgency wars that followed in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008 as failures of foresight.
- The China Bet: Analysing the failure of the Western bet that China's admission to the World Trade Organisation (WTO) in 2001 would lead to inevitable political reform and democratisation.
- The Problem of "Black Swans": Arguing that events like 9/11 and the GFC were not true black swan events but were foreseeable had there been better intelligence and regulatory oversight.
- States as Non-Unitary Actors: Challenging international relations theory by arguing that states are not unitary rational actors but are driven by interest groups, demagogues, and dictators.
- Grand Strategy and Empire: Examining the concept of grand strategy through historical cases like Imperial Britain, the Roman Empire, and the expansionist strategies of Russia and the Ming Dynasty in China.
- The Century of Humiliation: Discussing the Chinese Communist Party's strategic propagation of the Century of Humiliation narrative to justify its autocratic power and military build-up.
- Brownian Motion in Geopolitics: Introducing the concept of Brownian motion to describe the "turbulence or indeterminacy at the molecular level", referring to the micro forces that often cause major geopolitical surprises.
- The Deficit in Prediction: Citing Philip Tetlock's research, they note that political experts' long-term predictions are often no more accurate than "chimps throwing darts at a board".
- The Need for Scenarios and Nimbleness: Concluding that instead of making bold predictions, policymakers must use scenario analysis and focus on variables within the Brownian movement to improve strategic resilience and flexibility.
Dr Paul Monk is a poet, polymath and highly regarded Australian public intellectual. He has written an extraordinary range of books, from Sonnets to a Promiscuous Beauty (which resides in former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s library), to reflective essays on the riches of Western civilisation in The West in a Nutshell, to a prescient 2005 treatise on the rise of China in Thunder from the Silent Zone: Rethinking China.
