For 17 years, Deepak Shenoy has made annual Diwali predictions about markets, crashes, interest rates, and more. But how many were actually right?
Shray sits down with Deepak Shenoy from Capitalmind to examine his prediction history from 2007 to 2024. He correctly called the 2008 crash and Trump's 2024 victory. But real estate and gold? Wrong almost every year.
We break down why most predictions fail and what makes the rare successful ones different. Deepak explains the three elements of valid predictions (direction, magnitude, timeframe), why cash on sidelines signals crashes, how AI bubbles mirror 2000, and why interest rates are easy to predict but impossible to profit from.
This episode breaks down crashes, bubbles, and market timing, offering honest takes that you can actually use. Don't forget to like, share, and subscribe for more real insights on building wealth in Indian markets!
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Chapters:
00:00 Introduction & 2024 Predictions Recap
01:00 Will There Be a Market Crash in 2025?
03:40 How AI Could Trigger the Next Crash
06:15 Why This Time Is Different from 2008
09:40 US Recession + Inflation = Stagflation?
12:10 Why Indian Markets May Keep Rising
15:00 The Real Estate Prediction Trap
20:20 Gold, Inflation & Interest Rate Outlook
28:20 Japan's 30-Year Debt Problem Explained
33:40 Can the Rupee Go Global?
40:20 Why Predictions Usually Fail
46:00 Don't Predict, Respond Instead
50:10 Deepak's 2025 Predictions Recap
58:00 Closing Thoughts
