David Hunter, Chief Macro Strategist with Contrarian Macro Advisors, discusses his outlook on the equity markets and the broader economy. Hunter has consistently predicted a melt-up scenario, and he has recently raised his targets for the S&P 500, NASDAQ, Dow, and Russell indices, with the most aggressive target being 3,800 for the Russell. He believes that the current bull market will continue to climb, driven by improving sentiment among institutional investors, who have been cautious but are now more bullish. However, he foresees a significant downturn, or "bust," in the near future, characterized by a severe recession and a financial crisis. This bust is likely to be triggered by issues in Europe, China, or Japan, exacerbated by high levels of leverage and potential policy mistakes by central banks. Hunter expects the bust to be more severe than the 2008-2009 financial crisis, with a potential 80% decline in the equity markets. He anticipates a delayed and inadequate response from central banks, leading to a prolonged period of economic distress. Despite this grim outlook, Hunter sees opportunities in commodities and precious metals post-bust, as these assets are likely to appreciate significantly in the inflationary environment that follows. He advises investors to prepare for the bust by reducing debt and positioning themselves to take advantage of the opportunities that will arise during the recovery. Hunter also discusses the potential for a gold-backed bond and the future of the bond market, predicting that bond yields could drop significantly during the bust.
