In four days, U.S. law could force a military withdrawal in the middle of an active conflict, as tensions with Iran continue to simmer. In Guns of May, Jack Russo shows how this crisis is echoing the same patterns that drove World War I and nearly triggered nuclear war in 1962, where rigid timelines and pressure overtake strategy.

But this time, the risks are sharper. The U.S. is negotiating against a ticking legal clock, while Iran's leadership appears fractured, raising doubts that any deal can hold. Meanwhile, oil markets, shipping lanes, and cyber threats are already under strain. The real danger is not a sudden explosion, but a slow, irreversible slide into escalation.