As global powers double down on militarism and defense, Daniel Zoughbie argues that the most transformative force in the Middle East has always come from citizen diplomacy.
A complex-systems scientist and diplomatic historian, Zoughbie joins Mark Labberton to explore how twelve US presidents have "kicked the hornet's nest" of the modern Middle East. Drawing on his work in global health and his new book Kicking the Hornet's Nest: U.S. Foreign Policy in the Middle East from Truman to Trump, Zoughbie contrasts the view from refugee camps and micro-clinic networks with the view from the Oval Office, arguing that American security rests on a three-legged stool of defence, diplomacy, and development.
He explains why Gerald Ford stands out as the lone president who truly leveraged diplomacy, how the Marshall Plan model of enlightened self-interest can guide policy now, and why nationalism, not mere economics, lies at the heart of Gaza's future. Throughout, he presses listeners toward "citizen diplomacy" that resists pride, militarism, and fatalism.
Episode Highlights
- "We've constantly ignored diplomacy."
- " You don't have to be enemies with people to get them to do what is in their own self-interest."
- "You can build skyscrapers in Gaza. You can build the Four Seasons in Gaza and it's not going to work. You're just going to have another war until you address that core issue of nationalism."
- "These three D's, defense, diplomacy, development, are the three-legged stool of American security and we know how important diplomacy and development are."
- "From Truman to Trump, only one president, and that is Gerald Ford, surprisingly the only unelected president, gets this right."
- "Pride—national pride, the pride of any one individual—is toxic. It's toxic to the individual. It's toxic to the nation. It's toxic to the world."
- "Foreign policymaking is not just something for secretaries of state and those in power. All of us in a democracy have a role to play."
Helpful Links and Resources
About Daniel Zoughbie
Daniel E. Zoughbie is a complex-systems scientist, historian, and expert on presidential decision-making. He is associate project scientist at UC Berkeley's Institute of International Studies, a faculty affiliate of the UCSF/UCB Center for Global Health Delivery, Diplomacy, and Economics, and principal investigator of the Middle East and North Africa Diplomacy, Development, and Defense Initiative. He is the author of Kicking the Hornet's Nest: U.S. Foreign Policy in the Middle East from Truman to Trump and of Indecision Points: George W. Bush and the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict. His award-winning research has appeared in journals such as PLOS Medicine, Mayo Clinic Proceedings, and Social Science and Medicine. A Phi Beta Kappa graduate of UC Berkeley, he studied at Oxford on a Marshall Scholarship and completed his doctorate there as a Weidenfeld Scholar.
Show Notes
Middle East Background and Micro-clinic Origins
- Daniel Zoughbie recalls visiting the Middle East as a child—"frankly horrified" by what he saw
- UC Berkeley protests over the Iraq War and post-9/11 US policy in the region
- Metabolic disease and type 2 diabetes as an overlooked "greatest killer in the region."
- Neighbours in the West Bank sharing food, medicine, and blood-pressure cuffs—leads to the "micro-clinic" concept
- Good health behaviours, like bad ones and even violence, can be contagious through social networks
Social Networks, Anthropology, and Security
- Social anthropology, political science, and international relations
- Medical problems as simultaneously biological and sociological problems
- Understanding Middle East security demands attention to decisions "at the very bottom" as well as "the view from above"
- October 7 and 9/11 illustrate how small groups of people can "change the world with their decisions."
Complex Systems and Foreign Policy
- Complexity is always increasing, and diplomacy and development exist to slow it down.
- Definition of "complex system": as one where many inputs produce outcomes that cannot be reduced to single causes.
- "We almost have a new law here, which is that complexity is always increasing in the universe. And the role of diplomacy and development, as I see it in international relations, is to slow things down. It's to stop complexity from advancing so that people have time to cool their tempers and to solve major security crises."
- Type 2 diabetes as a model for thinking about how city planning, economics, relationships, and habits interact
- He applies that lens to international relations: nations, leaders, institutions, and history form a "cascade of complexity."
From Refugee Camps to Presidential Palaces
- George Shultz and Tony Blair: decision-makers as "real human beings," not abstractions
- Theological and ideological forces—such as certain apocalyptic readings of Scripture—that shape US foreign policy
- Gnosticism and eschatology within American right-wing Christianity
- Painstaking global health work on the ground and sweeping decisions made in Washington, Brussels, or New York
Twelve Presidents and One Exception
- Kicking the Hornet's Nest: analysis of twelve presidents from Truman to Trump through the lens of Middle East decision-making
- Core claim: Only Gerald Ford truly rebalanced the three D's of defence, diplomacy, and development.
- US policy in the Levant: heavy reliance on militarism, coups, and covert actions while underinvesting in diplomacy and development
- Claim: "Far better alternatives were on the table" for every administration, yet consistently passed over.
Gerald Ford, Kissinger, and the Path to Peace
- Daniel contends that the 1967 and 1973 wars were both preventable and nearly became global nuclear catastrophes.
- Ford inherits the presidency amid Watergate and national division, but keeps Henry Kissinger at State.
- Ford presses Israel and Egypt toward serious negotiations, empowering Kissinger's shuttle diplomacy and personal ties.
- A sharply worded letter threatening to "reconsider" the US-Israel relationship
- Ford's diplomacy and the development of Camp David and the enduring Egypt-Israel peace based on "land for peace."
Pride, Personality, and Presidential Failure
- Did Ford's temperament keep him from making himself the center of the story?
- In contrast, many presidents and other leaders write themselves "thickly" into the narrative of the conflict.
- Pride—personal and national—as a toxic force that repeatedly undermines US policy
- The Iraq War and democracy-promotion agenda and the self-defeating nature of moralistic, militarized crusades
Marshall Plan and Enlightened Self-Interest
- George Marshall and harsh punishment after World War I helped produce Nazi Germany
- The Marshall Plan models an "enlightened way of viewing the American self-interest": rebuilding Europe and Japan to secure U.S. security.
- He contrasts that with the neglect of the Levant, where aid and institution-building never matched military activism.
- Marshall's genius lies in locating the intersection between others' deepest needs and American capabilities.
Militarism, Iran, and Nuclear Risk
- Recent US-Israel-Iran confrontation as an "extremely dangerous moment"—with 60 percent enriched uranium unaccounted for
- JCPOA as an imperfect but effective diplomatic achievement, but dismantled in favor of militarism
- Claim: Bombing Iran scattered nuclear material and increased complexity rather than reducing the threat.
- He warns that one nuclear device could be delivered by low-tech means—a boat or helicopter—endangering civilians and US forces in the Gulf.
- The only realistic path forward: renewed multilateral diplomacy between US, Israel, Iran, Russia, China, Pakistan, India, and regional actors
Ethical Realism and Max Weber
- "Ethical realism"—Max Weber's distinction between the ethic of the gospel and the ethic of responsibility
- Statespeople bear responsibility for using force, yet the greatest can still say "here I stand and I can do no other."
- Claim: True leadership seeks a higher ethic where national interest aligns with genuine concern for others.
Gaza, Nationalism, and Two States
- Welcoming the end of active war between Israel and Hamas and critiquing reconstruction plans that ignore politics
- Conflict is fundamentally nationalist: a struggle for self-determination by both Jewish and Palestinian peoples
- Claim: Economic development without a credible political horizon will not prevent "another October 7th and another terrible war."
- In his view, only partition of mandatory Palestine into two states can meet legitimate self-determination claims.
- For example, "You can build skyscrapers in Gaza… and it's not going to work" without addressing nationalism.
Citizen Diplomacy and a Better Way
- Foreign policy is not only the work of secretaries of state; democratic citizens have responsibilities.
- American University of Beirut and the Gaza Baptist Hospital as fruits of citizen diplomacy
- Claim: Educational and medical institutions can change lives more profoundly and durably than military campaigns.
- Redirecting resources from bombs to universities and hospitals to reduce the need for future military interventions
- An invitation to citizen diplomacy: informed voting, sustained attention, and creative engagement for a more just peace
Production Credits
Conversing is produced and distributed in partnership with Comment magazine and Fuller Seminary.
