Mark Longo welcomes Greg Magadini of Amberdata for The Crypto Rundown to dissect the crypto market's weakness following the latest Fed meeting. As Bitcoin (BTC) drops back below the $90,000 level and altcoins like Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) pull back, the hosts analyze critical volatility indicators and options flow to determine if a full "crypto winter" is approaching, or if it's time to buy the dip.
Is Winter Coming? Bitcoin has pulled back $4,000 post-FOMC, leading to a highly divided audience poll on whether to buy the dip or prepare for more downside.
Vol Skew Analysis: The volatility surface has fundamentally reshaped since the summer, with long-dated Put Skew (puts more expensive than calls) priced in all the way out to 180 days. Greg explains how this positioning suggests IBIT holders are well-hedged.
Critical Inflection Point: Analysis of Gamma Exposure profiles pinpoints the $85,000 strike as the key downside level for dealers, separating consolidation from a major crash risk.
Understanding Shadow Term Structure: Greg explains this cool Amberdata tool, which acts as a time-lapse for volatility, allowing traders to compare current term structure to historical trends.
Hottest Crypto Options: Dissection of trades in IBIT (Bitcoin ETF) and the highly speculative MSTU (leveraged MicroStrategy). Learn why the MSTU upside is a favorite sell for premium collectors.
Altcoin Universe: Analysis of Ethereum (ETH) falling below $3,000, Solana (SOL) (SOL) at $125, and their relative volatility against each other.
Trading Strategy: Greg explains why he prefers to sell long-term puts on assets like Circle (C) to finance long-term call spreads, capturing high Vega exposure before expected volatility repricing.
BTC, ETH Volatility (7-Day, 30-Day, 180-Day)
BTC, ETH Vol Skew & Risk Reversal
IBIT Options Flow (Dec 52/54 Vertical)
