Proxy War Rather Than Apocalypse
As the world holds its breath, waiting for a tweet or an order from the Oval Office that would set the Middle East ablaze, geography seems to be dictating Donald Trump’s forced restraint.
The businessman knows that a head-on war with Iran would turn the Gulf’s “luxury hives” into infernos, ruining the global economy and his own presidency.
Consequently, the “Iran War without Iran” takes shape as a strategy of avoidance. Rather than throwing its armies into the Yemeni quagmire or the Persian trap, America could choose the path of least cost: seize the island jewels (Socotra), secure the maritime locks, and let mercenaries manage the dust of the continents. In short, a war of maritime positions where the enemy is encircled without ever touching his red line, transforming the military confrontation into an immense naval game of Go where Tehran is suffocated, but not attacked.
Geography Against Technology
Hedy Belhassine sheds light on a reality often forgotten in modern analyses: despite drones and hypersonic missiles, geography remains the master of the game.
Asymmetric Vulnerability
Hedy Belahassine highlights a crucial paradox. The Arab allies of the USA have everything to lose (metropolises of glass and steel, a fragile tourism economy), while Iran and Yemen, accustomed to austerity and protected by hostile terrain, offer few decisive targets. This asymmetry paralyzes American power, which cannot strike hard without sacrificing its protégés.
The Strategy of the Archipelago
Hedy Belhassine identifies the shift from land conflict to maritime control. The stake is no longer the conquest of populations (unmanageable in Yemen), but the mastery of passage points (Bab el Mandeb, Hormuz). He who holds the islands (Socotra) holds global trade.
The Shadow of China
Finally, the reminder regarding Djibouti is capital. In this strategic pocket handkerchief, enemies rub shoulders. Any brutal American intervention in Yemen or Iran would directly threaten the Chinese “New Silk Roads,” risking the internationalization of a conflict that Trump would like to keep regional and profitable.
