驅動晶片產能鬆動引發市場疑慮，瑞士信貸26日報告指出，有別於保守派看法，可撓式OLED面板正邁向黃金爆發期，預估2022年可撓式OLED出貨受惠中國手機品牌採用較今年成長25%，2025年出貨量較當前倍增，且三星DDI預期在未來交付台廠生產，龍頭聯詠（3034）可望受惠最大，對此重申聯詠735元目標價外，同步喊買頎邦（6147）、南茂（8150），目標價93元、57元。
瑞信表示，可撓式OLED面板逐漸成為手機主流，今年又以iPhone推力最大，占總需求比重上看五成，使全球出貨自去年的2.6億個提升到3.36億個，年增29%。
中國今年需求相對平淡，但瑞信指出，明年中國品牌預期進一步導入可撓式面板，特別是小米有京東方、天馬微電子等產能支援，加上當地面板產能陸續開出，可望接棒iPhone推升需求；預期出貨量較今年提升25%，並帶動2020-2025年可撓式OLED出貨複合成長17%，2025年產量上看5.6億個。
另一方面，三星也積極評估將DDI訂單外包，瑞信表示，三星2019年來陸續將手機AP、TV SoC、TV DDI及LCD顯示晶片生產進行外包，因此推動聯發科（2454）、聯詠和奇景光電表現。考量韓廠MagnaChip已宣布接受中資收購，是三星顯示的第二大OLED DDI供應商，加上外包有利其晶圓產能配置優化，預期將產鏈移轉到台灣。
瑞信調查，三星已陸續和聯詠、敦泰（3545）及奇景光電接洽，在聯詠握有驅動晶片的龍頭地位，且2020年來大量生產OLED DDI，和聯電（2303）長期合作可高度掌握產能，最有機會爭取三星大單，成為最大贏家。
瑞信表示，若聯詠通過認證，將先從剛性rigid OLED開始供貨，大量生產的第一年，會額外為聯詠增加3,000顆晶片出貨，每股純益（EPS）提升3%，而目前rigid OLED每年的晶片需求約2億顆。至於敦泰和奇景光電若取得認證，因產能穩定度不如聯詠，最快可能在2023年啟動量產。
此外，瑞信表示，海思雖然也致力於OLED DDI生產，但晶片性能和良率一直無法有效改善，完全不是台廠的競爭對手。而三星產能轉移，同步有利封測廠頎邦、南茂，因此齊步重申「加碼」
The loosening of driving chip production capacity has caused market doubts. Credit Suisse reported on the 26th that, unlike conservative views, flexible OLED panels are entering a golden period. It is estimated that flexible OLED shipments in 2022 will benefit the adoption of Chinese mobile phone brands. This is a 25% increase from this year, and shipments in 2025 will double the current volume. Samsung DDI is expected to be delivered to Taiwanese factories in the future. Leading Novatek (3034) is expected to benefit the most. In this regard, it reiterated Novatek’s target price of RMB 735. Call to buy Qibang (6147) and Nanmao (8150), with target prices of RMB 93 and RMB 57.
Credit Suisse said that flexible OLED panels have gradually become the mainstream of mobile phones. This year, the iPhone has the largest thrust, accounting for 50% of the total demand. Global shipments have increased from 260 million units last year to 336 million units, an annual increase of 29%. .
China’s demand this year is relatively flat, but Credit Suisse pointed out that next year Chinese brands are expected to further introduce flexible panels, especially Xiaomi has BOE, Tianma Microelectronics and other production support, and local panel production capacity is gradually opened, it is expected to take over the iPhone push Increase demand; shipments are expected to increase by 25% compared with this year, and will drive a compound growth of 17% in flexible OLED shipments from 2020 to 2025. The output in 2025 will increase to 560 million.
On the other hand, Samsung is also actively evaluating the outsourcing of DDI orders. Credit Suisse said that Samsung has successively outsourced the production of mobile phone AP, TV SoC, TV DDI and LCD display chips in 2019, thus promoting MediaTek (2454), Novatek and Himax Photoelectric performance. Considering that the South Korean factory MagnaChip has announced its acceptance of Chinese-funded acquisitions, it is Samsung Display's second largest OLED DDI supplier. In addition, outsourcing is beneficial to the optimization of its wafer capacity allocation. It is expected that the production chain will be transferred to Taiwan.
According to Credit Suisse's investigation, Samsung has successively contacted Novatek, Duntech (3545) and Himax, and holds the leading position in driving chips in Novatek, and has mass-produced OLED DDI since 2020. Long-term cooperation with UMC (2303) can be highly anticipated. Mastering the production capacity has the best chance to win Samsung's big order and become the biggest winner.
Credit Suisse stated that if Novatek passes the certification, it will start supplying rigid rigid OLEDs. In the first year of mass production, Novatek will add 3,000 more chips to shipments and increase profit per share (EPS) by 3%. At present, the annual demand for rigid OLED chips is about 200 million. As for Duntai and Himax Optoelectronics, if they are certified, they may start mass production as early as 2023 because their production capacity is not as stable as Novatek.
股票發發發，「STB台股大行情」開始用LINE@了！
我們將會提供許多好康資訊給大家，請透過下方連結將我們加入好友。
一.
https://lin.ee/1kBwwmN
Line搜尋 @jqa3557y
二. Telegram,理財STB
https://t.me/stbstock11
三. YT 理財教學頻道
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t-K-9Um96MQ
本網站所提供之文章或影音僅供參考，不能保
證獲利或減少損失，亦無鼓吹以及建議任何具體投資行動或決定。任何投資均
有其風險，投資人應為自己的決策負責，本網站不負訂閱者或內容瀏覽者投資
盈虧任何之責任。我們提供的資訊將力求正確性與即時性，但一切財務數字應
以證交所以及企業本身所提供為主
In addition, Credit Suisse stated that, although HiSilicon is also committed to OLED DDI production, its chip performance and yield have not been effectively improved, and it is not a competitor of Taiwanese manufacturers. And the transfer of Samsung’s production capacity will simultaneously benefit the packaging and testing plants Qibang and Nanmao, so they reiterate the "overweight" step by step.
