Description

Stagflation, Rising Inflation & Real-World Family Risk Management

Aired July 12, 2025

In this episode, Allan breaks down the next phase of the economic cycle and continues July’s deep dive into Risk Management for Families—what it is, why it matters, and how to protect your household from the threats most people underestimate.

Segment One — Portfolio Update: Stagflation → Quad 2 (But With a Warning)

The quarter remains in Quad 3 (Stagflation)—slow growth, rising inflation. But models show a shift toward Quad 2, where inflation accelerates and growth stays “meh.” Allan explains what’s driving this transition and what investors should prepare for.

Market Signals to Watch

• Interest rate changes as the Fed responds to sticky inflation
• Inflation rising, fueled by energy, commodities, and government policy
• Inflationary assets climbing sharply — gold, oil, industrial metals
• The U.S. dollar strong for now, but expected to weaken ahead
• Dollar-denominated assets gaining strength

Tariff Panic?

New tariff letters caused a stir—but Allan calls them what they are:

“A nothing burger.”

No meaningful economic impact yet, but worth monitoring as policy evolves.

Segment Two — July Theme: Risk Management for Families

This week focuses on household-level risk, the everyday vulnerabilities families rarely plan for—until it’s too late.

1. Income Risk

Job loss, disability, or reliance on a single income.

Tip: 3–6 month emergency fund + disability insurance.

2. Health Risk

High deductibles, medical emergencies, aging parents.

Tip: Understand your health insurance options, including ACA, employer plans, and HSAs.

3. Life & Mortality Risk

What happens if a provider passes unexpectedly?

Tip: Affordable term life insurance—get it while young and healthy.

4. Property & Liability Risk

Floods, fires, auto accidents, lawsuits.

Tip: Add an umbrella policy—low cost, major protection.

5. Legal & Financial Risk

Divorce, lawsuits, identity theft.

Tip: Create a will, POA, and strengthen cybersecurity practices.

Why Families Misjudge Risk

Allan explains the psychological traps that lead families to underprepare:

• Optimism Bias

“It won’t happen to us.”

• Status Quo Bias

“We’ve always done it this way.”

• Underestimating Long-Term Risks

Inflation and healthcare costs in retirement compound faster than expected.

Simple Steps Families Can Take This Week

1. List your top 5 household risks
2. Review all insurance policies annually
3. Build or replenish your emergency fund
4. Put basic estate documents in place
5. Have an honest conversation with your spouse or partner

Key Principle

“Risk management isn’t about fear. It’s about responsibility, clarity, and peace of mind.”

📞 Contact Allan Malina: 434-316-0246

🌐 www.servuscm.com

🎧 Teaser for Next Week:

“What happens when your retirement plan meets a market crash?”