Episode 63 explains leading indicators—the proactive, forward‑looking measures that reveal the health of your safety system before someone gets hurt. Dr. Ayers emphasizes that leading indicators are the engine of prevention, while lagging indicators are merely the scoreboard.
Leading indicators measure activities, conditions, and behaviors that reduce risk before an incident occurs.
Examples include:
Number of hazards identified and corrected
Quality and frequency of safety observations
Preventive maintenance completion rates
Training effectiveness and demonstrated competence
Near‑miss reporting volume
Safety meeting participation
Corrective action closure rates
Control verification (Are controls actually working?)
These metrics reflect system performance, not just outcomes.
Dr. Ayers highlights several advantages:
They measure what you control, not what you hope to avoid.
They reveal weaknesses early, before injuries occur.
They encourage engagement, not fear.
They shift the organization from reactive to proactive.
They provide a more accurate picture of safety performance than injury rates.
Leading indicators are the closest thing to a safety early‑warning system.
The episode calls out several pitfalls:
Tracking too many indicators, creating noise instead of insight
Choosing indicators that don’t actually influence risk
Focusing on “easy to count” instead of “important to measure”
Treating leading indicators as checkboxes instead of quality measures
Failing to close the loop on corrective actions
A leading indicator is only useful if it drives action.
Dr. Ayers uses real‑world scenarios to show how leading indicators work:
A spike in near‑miss reports is a good sign—it means trust is increasing.
A drop in preventive maintenance completion predicts equipment failures.
A rise in hazard reports shows workers are engaged, not that the workplace is getting worse.
Low participation in safety meetings signals cultural issues, not compliance issues.
These examples help leaders interpret leading indicators correctly.
The episode recommends selecting indicators that:
Reflect critical risks
Are within the team’s control
Can be measured consistently
Drive meaningful conversations
Lead to corrective action
Quality matters more than quantity.
To use leading indicators effectively, leaders should:
Pair them with lagging indicators for a complete picture
Focus on risk reduction, not activity counting
Reward reporting and transparency
Use indicators to guide coaching and resource allocation
Review indicators regularly and adjust as needed
The episode’s core message: Leading indicators tell you where you’re going. Lagging indicators tell you where you’ve been.
