Russia is entering early-2026 “managed cooling,” but the pattern across multiple indicators points to something more serious: stagnation with widening stress fractures. In this video, I walk through the IMF’s downgraded 2026 growth outlook, the corporate shift toward “tactical poverty,” persistent inflation and punishing interest rates that choke investment, falling oil and gas revenues under tighter sanctions pressure, the January VAT hike pushing the war’s cost onto households, and visible infrastructure failures—from heating breakdowns to outages. This isn’t a prediction of collapse. It’s a data-driven look at why the “everything is fine” narrative is getting harder to sustain. Facts over noise. Context over headlines. Truth over talking points. Russia economy, Russian economy 2026, Russia inflation, Russian central bank rate, 16% interest rate Russia, IMF Russia forecast 2026, Russia 0.8% growth, Russian oil revenue collapse, Rosneft sanctions, Lukoil sanctions, VAT hike Russia 2026, Russia war spending GDP, Russian infrastructure collapse, Murmansk heating failure, Engels outages, Russia stagnation, Russia recession 2027, Gerdes #Ukraine #Russia #Putin #Economy #Sanctions #Inflation #IMF Video Chapters 0:00 – The Illusion of Resilience Fades 1:15 – IMF Slashes 2026 Growth Forecast to 0.8% 2:30 – “Tactical Poverty”: The Corporate Survival Strategy 4:00 – The Death of Oil Revenue: Sanctions on Rosneft & Lukoil 5:45 – High Interest Rates and the Investment Freeze 7:15 – January VAT Hike: Citizens Pay for the War 8:45 – Infrastructure Collapse: Freezing Cities and Power Outages 10:15 – Stagnation vs. Recession: What Lies Ahead for 2027 Facts over noise. Context over headlines. Truth over talking points. ***** To support me as as I provide Ukraine war context: ***** Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/ProfessorGerdesExplains Buy Me A Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/professorgerdes Paypal: https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/professorgerdes YouTube Channel Membership: https://www.youtube.com/@Professor-Gerdes/membership 🇺🇸 Contact the White House to express your support for Ukraine https://www.whitehouse.gov/contact/ *****IF YOU WISH TO PROVIDE DIRECT AID TO UKRAINE: ***** 🇺🇦 I have partnered with Greg Terry for all donations to Ukraine. He has raised and delivered more than a quarter of a million dollars of aid to date. To directly support this effort of delivering necessary provisions to the front lines, click on these links (and then watch him give your donations to soldiers on the front lines on his channel): https://www.youtube.com/@GregTerryExperience Amazon Shopping List USA/North America (Shop and send to UKRAINE AID c/o Bethel Life's Gift Registry Address) https://a.co/iodWsUK Amazon Shopping List for EU/UK https://www.amazon.de/hz/wishlist/ls/... Direct Link for Financial Giving via our 501(c)(3) Tax-Deductible in the USA https://www.gregterry.org/donate.html Link for Greg's 501(c)(3) EIN Information https://www.gregterry.org/donate.html 🇺🇸 Alternatively, you may choose to donate to Samaritan’s Purse: https://www.samaritanspurse.org/our-ministry/ukraine-response/?utm_source=FY22UkraineResponseVanityURL&utm_medium=direct&utm_campaign=m_YUKR-22L3&utm_content=Ukraine-Response-Redirect%20%20 🇺🇦 If you wish to support the Ukrainian Army, give directly to United 24. Follow this link: https://u24.gov.ua/ ***BUY SOMETHING TO SHOW YOUR SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE *** 🇺🇦 If you purchase from Saint Javelin with my link below, a cut of the proceeds will go directly to humanitarian aid for soldiers (bandages, tourniquets, etc.). I don't get the revenue. It goes to buy medical supplies from UnitewithUkraine.com. Use this link: https://www.saintjavelin.com/en-us?utm_source=YouTube&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Gerdes 🇺🇸 This is the absolute CHEAPEST THING YOU CAN DO to support Ukraine (This is NOT MY SITE) https://amzn.to/4aPtwQr - Just support the war effort somehow. 🇺🇦 I wrote a book about Ukraine's president Zelenskyy which I have updated for the first 4-5 months of the war in Ukraine: It is free if you have Amazon Kindle Unlimited or $9.99 otherwise: https://amzn.to/3Q2wnyE 🇺🇦 If you cannot give or buy, you can like, share, and pray for the people of Ukraine. 🇺🇸 Please leave comments and tell me how I can help you gain more perspective. You can contact me @Dr_Gerdes on Twitter or email professorgerdesyt@gmail.com #UKRAINE #UKRAINERUSSIAWAR #UKRAINEWAR
