Key Points:
- Iran has been severely weakened by sanctions and the death of Soleimani further destabilizes Iran
- The death of Soleimani is part of a three-part strategy:
- Constrain Iran’s malign activity
- Roll back Iran’s influence in the region - especially in Iraq
- Deter further Iranian aggression
- Iran hopes that the death of Soleimani would galvanize its population
- Iran’s strategic information capabilities are significant
- The IRGC are more ideologically entrenched than the conventional Iranian military forces
- Iran is unlikely to want to confront the U.S. again in a direct fashion
- Future attacks will allow Iran deniability
- Attacks are likely to occur against U.S. allies in the region
- Expect a back channel movement to establish a diplomatic resolution – ease sanctions
- A significant portion of the Iraqi population wants Iranian influence out of Iraq
- Kim Jung Un is watching this closely
- China remains a critical aspect to resolution with North Korea
- China could provide military and nuclear top cover for North Korea
- For the first time, Iran, China, and Russia held joint naval exercises
- Remains to be seen if this partnership will embolden Iran
- Remains to be seen if Russia and China will stand behind the actions of Iran
- If Iran attempted to close the Strait of Hormuz, China would be greatly impacted
