Two weeks into the US-Israeli war on Iran, Darren uses Robert Pape's cost-benefit framework to assess where things stand. The tactical achievements are real — two-thirds of Iran's missile launchers destroyed, its navy sunk, its leadership decapitated — but the probability of converting those gains into durable strategic outcomes is low, and the costs are mounting fast.
On the military side, interceptor stocks are being depleted at unsustainable rates, and missile defence assets may be being redeployed from South Korea in a move that achieves what Chinese coercion could not. Economically, Iran's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered what may be the largest oil supply disruption in history, with cascading effects through gas, fertiliser, and food markets arriving at the worst possible moment in the agricultural calendar. Strategically, Russia is profiting, China is learning, Gulf allies are furious, and the non-proliferation incentive structure has been inverted.
Darren assesses the range of plausible outcomes — from a painful but temporary shock to a nuclear-armed Iran within eighteen months — and examines the factors that will determine how the war ends, including US-Israel divergence, Trump's contradictory signals, and Iran's determination to ensure this is the last time it is attacked. He closes with an observation about weaponised interdependence: that a sanctioned middle power with cheap drones and a narrow strait has exposed the gap between America's capacity to destroy and its capacity to control.
Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Hannah Nelson and theme music composed by Rory Stenning.
Relevant links
Robert Pape, Bombing to win (1996): https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/761594.Bombing_to_Win
Caitlin Talmadge, “Closing Time: Assessing Possible Outcomes of U.S.-Iranian Conflict in the Strait of Hormuz,” International Security, 33(1), summer 2008: 82-11: http://www.caitlintalmadge.com/uploads/8/5/4/1/85419560/closing_time.pdf
Caitlin Talmadge, "The Hormuz Minefield", Foreign Affairs, 13 March 2026: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/hormuz-minefield
Vali Nasr, "Iran is playing a long game", Financial Times, 13 March: https://www.ft.com/content/93b7b65d-074b-4e8b-807f-5c27c7362213
Matthew Continetti, "Iran Can't Hold the World Hostage", Wall Street Journal, 13 March: https://www.wsj.com/opinion/free-expression/iran-cant-hold-the-world-hostage-05f595a4
Greg Brew, "The global oil crisis is even worse than it looks" (interview), Vox, 11 March: https://www.vox.com/politics/482142/oil-gas-prices-iran-war-inflation
B.A. Friedman, "Orphaned Tactics", Fire for Effect Substack, 9 March: https://bafriedman.substack.com/p/orphaned-tactics
Danny Citrinowicz, thread on tactical success masking strategic failure, X/Twitter, 14 March: https://x.com/citrinowicz/status/2032786358930972854
Ezra Klein, "I Asked a Former Trump Official to Justify This War" (interview with Nadia Schadlow), New York Times, 10 March: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/10/opinion/ezra-klein-podcast-nadia-schadlow.html
Foreign Policy Live debate: Matthew Kroenig vs Trita Parsi, Foreign Policy, 12 March: https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/03/12/kroenig-parsi-debate-war-in-iran/
Shelby Talcott, “Israel is running critically low on interceptors, US officials say”, Semafor, 15 March: https://www.semafor.com/article/03/14/2026/israel-is-running-critically-low-on-interceptors-us-officials-say
Gideon Rachman, "Simon Gass on Iran" (interview), The Rachman Review podcast, 12 March: https://www.ft.com/content/cba7352f-aac0-4a6a-8919-c0597bc94c43
Rory Johnston and Nader Itayim, Oil Ground Up podcast, 13 March: https://open.spotify.com/episode/7uPA9g5dWIYcvGH6vSSpEh
Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal, "Oil markets" and "Fertiliser" episodes, Odd Lots podcast, 13–14 March: https://www.bloomberg.com/oddlots
China Talk podcast, "Second Breakfast: Iran", 14 March: https://www.chinatalk.media/p/iran-war-with-shashank
Jake Sullivan and John Finer, interview with Danny Citrinowicz, The Long Game podcast, 12 March: https://staytuned.substack.com/p/america-doesnt-understand-iran-and
Economist Intelligence podcast, " Lone goals: will US-Israel war aims diverge?", 13 March: https://www.economist.com/podcasts/2026/03/13/lone-goals-will-us-israel-war-aims-diverge
