Compass says 2026 is the first real turning point in four years — but the shift isn’t what most people expect.
The headline from Compass is loud and clear: the housing market is finally entering its next era — and it’s GOOD news.
For the first time in years, affordability is improving, inventory is rising, and Compass is calling 2026 the moment the market stabilizes instead of breaks.
Here’s what we get into today:
The shift Compass says is already happening
Compass believes the long affordability crisis is finally easing — slowly, but measurably.
Flat national prices… but very different regional stories
Some markets cool, some grow, and the Sunbelt continues to shine.
The big number nobody is talking about
Compass projects 4.25 million home sales in 2026 — a 5% jump as pent-up demand finally moves.
Why 6.4% mortgage rates might actually help
It’s not the rate buyers dreamed of, but it provides the stability the market needed.
The return of healthy price-to-income ratios
Affordability isn’t just rates — it’s what people actually feel in their wallets.
What this means for buyers in Miami and the Sunbelt
Compass expects strong momentum in the regions where people want to live, build, and retire.
Here are seven simple takeaways at a 5th-grade reading level:
Buyers will have more choices in 2026.
Prices should stay flat in most places.
Some cities will grow more than others.
Mortgage rates may sit near 6.4%.
More people will move because they’re finally ready.
Sunbelt states could see the most growth.
2026 should feel calmer and more fair for buyers.
Here’s a 30-Second 2026 Playbook you can use right away:
Step 1: “2026 is the first year affordability improves in a long time.”
Step 2: “Sales could rise 5% as people who’ve been waiting finally move.”
Step 3: “Expect mortgage rates around 6.4%.”
Step 4: “Sunbelt markets — including Miami — should stay strong.”
Step 5: “It’s a more normal market again. Finally.”
If you ever want to buy or sell a property anywhere in the world, our team would be honored to help get you to your next destination.
Until next time, stay curious, stay hungry, and as always… stay ALL IN!
Amit Bhuta
COMPASS
ALL IN Miami Group
Licensed Real Estate Agent
(305) 439-3031 Mobile
amit.bhuta@compass.com
ALLinMiami.com
