Blue Origin's highly anticipated debut launch of its New Glenn rocket was scrubbed on Monday, January 12, 2025, after repeated delays due to a "vehicle subsystem issue."
The launch was initially scheduled for early morning on January 13th, within a 1 am - 4 am EST window, but the countdown clock was repeatedly reset, ultimately resulting in a postponement.
The launch is a critical test for Blue Origin, aiming to establish them as a credible competitor in the private space race.
Key Events and Timeline:
- Initial Launch Window: January 13th, 1:00 AM - 4:00 AM EST.
- Repeated Countdown Resets: The launch time was pushed back multiple times: 1:31 AM, 1:52 AM, 2:07 AM, 2:27 AM, 2:48 AM, and finally 3:15 AM.
- Launch Scrub: After two hours and nine minutes of delays, the launch director decided to postpone the launch due to an unspecified "vehicle subsystem issue."
New Glenn Rocket - Technical Details:
- Size and Capacity: New Glenn is a 320-foot-tall rocket, a bit taller than the Statue of Liberty. It has a larger payload capacity than currently operational rockets.
- Engines: The rocket utilizes seven BE-4 engines, which have previously flown on United Launch Alliance's Vulcan rocket.
- Payload: For this test flight, New Glenn carried a prototype of Blue Ring, a space vehicle intended for orbital payload maneuvering.
- Reusable Booster: New Glenn's booster stage is designed to be reusable and will attempt a landing on a barge in the Atlantic Ocean named Jacklyn.
- Not a "Cutting Edge" Rocket: The Blue Origin rocket does not rely on never-before-seen, whiz-bang technologies. It is not fully reusable, unlike what SpaceX is trying to make possible with Starship.
Significance of the New Glenn Launch:
- Blue Origin's Entry into the Orbital Space Race: This launch is crucial for Blue Origin, aiming to move beyond suborbital flights and become a competitor to SpaceX and other launch providers. Compared with SpaceX and some other companies, New Glenn is a bit of a latecomer in the private space race. The test flight aims to get the company off the starting block and onto the track.
- Increased Launch Options: A successful launch would provide an additional option for companies and government agencies to launch large satellites and spacecraft. If the mission succeeds, New Glenn would immediately provide an additional option for companies and government agencies to launch large satellites and spacecraft.
- Credibility for Blue Origin: The success of the New Glenn launch would strongly suggest Blue Origin could be a credible competitor to SpaceX. It would also suggest that Mr. Bezos’ company could finally grow into a credible competitor to Elon Musk’s SpaceX.
- High Stakes: A major failure could strand payloads for NASA, Amazon, and other customers for months or even years. But if a major failure occurs during the flight, it could strand payloads for NASA, Amazon and other customers on the ground for months or maybe even years.
All Potential Outcomes of the Test Flight:
- Major Failure (Launchpad or Early Flight Explosion): If the whole vehicle were to be destroyed on the launchpad during fueling or seconds after liftoff, it could suggest a serious problem with New Glenn that could ground the rocket for a long time. This would be a significant setback.
- Failure During Separation: A failure in separating the booster stage from the upper stage would not be unexpected but would require additional work for future flights. That would not be entirely unexpected for New Glenn’s initial launch. But it would mean that additional work is required ahead of future flights involving payloads from customers like NASA and the Department of Defense or private companies like Amazon.
- Successful Orbit and Upper Stage Relight: If Blue Origin is able to relight the vehicle’s upper stage engines in the vacuum of space, it would suggest that the design of New Glenn is sound, and its prospects for future missions are strong. A successful reach of orbit and upper stage engine firing will show that New Glenn is fundamentally sound.
- Successful Booster Landing: Landing the booster on the drone ship "Jacklyn" is ambitious and "gravy," according to Jeff Bezos. While not expected on the first try, it would be an impressive achievement.
6. Quotes from Jeff Bezos & Blue Origin:
- On being prepared for issues: "You have to be prepared for things to go wrong. You certainly are hoping that things go well. I think we’re ready.”
- On the success criteria: reaching orbit and activating the Blue Ring payload is the measurement of success.
- On the booster landing: “Landing the booster on Jacklyn would be gravy. Attempting to land the booster on the very first attempt, some people might say that’s a little crazy. It’s certainly ambitious. And we’re certainly not counting on that.”
- On the purpose of the high orbit: "And it puts the vehicle in a very harsh radiation environment, which we also want to test."
Blue Origin's Position in the Space Industry:
- Founded in 2000: While a long-standing company, Blue Origin's orbital ambitions lag behind SpaceX.
- New Shepard: Blue Origin has successfully launched its suborbital vehicle, New Shepard, multiple times for space tourism and scientific experiments. The company has launched to space before, but not to orbit. Its small vehicle, New Shepard, takes space tourists to the edge of space on flights that are called suborbital because they just go up and down like a roller coaster, with a velocity of zero at the top of the arc.
- BE-4 Engines: Blue Origin's BE-4 engines are being used by the United Launch Alliance (ULA) on its Vulcan rocket, which has successfully launched twice. The Vulcan rocket built by a competitor, United Launch Alliance, was designed to rely on two of Blue Origin’s BE-4s, and it made two successful launches to orbit last year.
Conclusion:
The scrubbed launch of the New Glenn rocket is a setback for Blue Origin, highlighting the challenges involved in spaceflight. The repeated delays indicate potential issues that need to be addressed before another launch attempt. The outcome of the New Glenn test flight has major implications for Blue Origin's future competitiveness, its potential customers, and the overall private space launch industry. The stakes are high, and the company must proceed carefully to ensure the safety and reliability of the vehicle for future missions.
