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🎙️ E115: Where the Smart Money Is Going — VC Investment Trends & the 2026 Outlook

In this episode of 10X Growth Strategies, host Preethy Padmanabhan sits down with Dawn DeBruyn Novarina to decode what’s really happening inside the venture capital ecosystem — beyond headlines, hype, and surface-level optimism. Drawing from funding intelligence, market data, and decades inside Silicon Valley, Dawn explains how AI infrastructure and applied AI now capture nearly 75% of venture funding, why deal sizes are exploding even as the number of deals is shrinking, and how a small group of mega-funds is quietly reshaping the startup economy. From $100M+ AI rounds and the return of M&A, to the shadow world of secondaries, dry powder, and reverse-acqui-hires, this conversation reveals why liquidity — not innovation — is the real bottleneck in 2025, and why 2026 will likely be a year of slow recovery rather than a blockbuster IPO cycle.

👉 Download the Venture Market Report 2025 Q3 (Link Silicon Valley): https://drive.google.com/file/d/1uWePI7o6lgm6FPdIkTUYXvI3PSnHuvzc/view

A data-rich, brutally honest look at what it now takes to raise, deploy, and return capital in the age of applied AI. ⸻
⏱️ Chapters 00:00 – 00:45 • Intro & the new funding reality
00:45 – 02:30 • Why this venture market report exists
02:30 – 03:55 • What surprised Dawn in the 2025 funding data
03:55 – 05:30 • The funding rebound — why capital is flowing again
05:30 – 07:10 • AI infrastructure & applied AI — the era of mega-rounds
07:10 – 09:40 • Why most non-AI startups are struggling to raise
09:40 – 11:10 • Median deal sizes, shrinking deal volume & valuation divergence
11:10 – 12:45 • The return of exits — M&A over IPOs
12:45 – 15:10 • Reverse acqui-hires & why big tech avoids buying companies
15:10 – 17:40 • The hidden human cost of these deals
17:40 – 19:25 • IPOs in 2025 — why none were breakout successes
19:25 – 21:00 • Biotech vs AI — what public markets really want
21:00 – 23:30 • Why unicorn-class companies are staying private
23:30 – 25:30 • Secondaries explained — the hidden liquidity engine
25:30 – 27:40 • VC concentration — why a few firms now control most capital 27:40 – 29:15 • Fundraising in 2025 — abundance for some, starvation for most 29:15 – 33:20 • Dry powder, barbell economics & the future of early-stage 33:20 – 45:14 • Outro — Final audience insights, closing advice & what founders must do next