Visa waits, new fees, thin long-haul flight capacity, and a steep Canada pullback are weighing on international travel to the U.S.—even as domestic trips hold up. In this 10–15 minute solo breakdown, I cut through the noise with a quick industry primer, the latest arrivals/spend trends, and what’s driving 2025’s underperformance vs. 2019 and 2024.
In this episode:
How the tourism engine works typically (≈3% of U.S. GDP; $1T+ in traveler spend; who the top source markets are)
The scoreboard: arrivals vs. last year and 2019, spend trends, and air/visa friction
What’s dragging inbound: consulate queues, added visa costs, limited China flight capacity, strong-dollar stretches, and “border vibe” effects
Canada deep-dive: multiple late-2025 months showing ~20–30% YoY declines, with border states feeling it first
Who’s most exposed: long-haul metros (NYC, SF/LA, LV, Honolulu) and drive-market corridors (NY/MI/WA/VT/ME)
What to watch next: NTTO monthly prints, visa-wait improvements, China capacity decisions, and high-frequency spend data
Bottom line: Domestic travel is fine; international inbound is the pain point. Unless visa friction eases, fees stabilize, and long-haul capacity improves, inbound will lag until the event tailwinds of 2026 kick in.
