In this episode, the team breaks down an unusually long crude market, muted price reactions to geopolitical risk, and what shifting tone from OPEC’s latest OSPs might signal for 2025. They dig into Venezuela’s political volatility and what any supply hit would really mean for global flows, alongside a US production surge driven by the Permian and Gulf of Mexico. The conversation then moves into products, where gasoline and naphtha markets show sharp regional divergences, softening cracks, and some surprising Atlantic/Asia ARB developments - painting a picture of a market well-supplied in crude but still tight and reactive in key product hubs.
Chapters
(02:17) Headlines: Ukraine, CPC attack, and geopolitical fog
Why crude barely reacted to escalating infrastructure attacks — and what this says about global length.
(07:33) Venezuela, Trump, and global crude flows
The team unpacks political threats, supply risk, and how China and US refiners would adapt.
(11:19) US supply surge and shale resilience
Record output, surprising Permian growth, and what flat rig counts reveal about producer behaviour.
(16:09) European gasoline softness and the shift to LR2s
How freight, parcel size, and WAF flows are reshaping gasoline economics.
(18:50) Gasoline: PADD 1 vs PADD 3 diverging realities
Why the US East Coast draws aren’t moving arbs — and what exporters are signalling instead
(25:01) US crude supply surge and WTI dynamics
Record Permian output, Delaware Basin growth, and why flat rigs aren’t slowing production.
How these shifts affect WTI pricing and export potential.
(34:16) Middle distillates
Regional tightness, seasonal demand, and arbitrage flows shaping market opportunities.
