November is off to a sluggish start for stocks, with all three major indices finishing the first week of the month in the red. If October was the party, then November has been the hangover.
Market sentiment has been weighed down by several factors: ongoing concerns about a potential government shutdown, limited fresh economic data, and renewed uncertainty about whether the Fed will deliver another rate cut in December.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are currently pricing in a 72.4% chance of a rate cut at the next FOMC meeting — still more likely than not, but a noticeable drop from confidence levels leading into October’s cut.
Adding to the cautious tone, the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 50.3%, down 6.2% from last month and marking its lowest reading since June 2022. Consumers are increasingly worried about inflation and the overall direction of the economy.
Tech stocks, which fueled much of this year’s rally, have been hit hardest amid valuation concerns. All eyes are on Nvidia’s earnings report on November 19th, which could set the tone for the broader market into year-end.
Meanwhile, the Supreme Court is reviewing the legality of tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977, a case that could have major implications for trade policy and global markets.
With so many moving parts — from the Fed’s next move to consumer confidence and international trade — market volatility may persist as we close out 2025.
