Bitcoin OG Junseth has been in Bitcoin since there were "2000 of us in a forum." Now he's calling out Bitcoin treasury companies for missing the obvious business model.
In this Treasury Orange exclusive, one of Bitcoin's most provocative voices reveals:
Why Bitcoin treasury companies with no underlying business make no sense
The "obvious" move MSTR should make (OTC desk strategy)
Why companies trading below 1.0x mNAV should buy back shares or sell bitcoin
How the GBTC trade turned 50% discounts into 100% returns overnight
Why gold will demonetize over the next 100 years (the aluminum story)
What investment looks like in a hyperbitcoinized world
Why "Bitcoin per share" is a stupid metric if you actually mean it
The Bear market survival guide from someone who's lived through them all
JUNSETH'S BACKGROUND:
🎙️ Early Bitcoin podcaster (when there were ~2000 Bitcoiners)
🏴 Former anarchist turned Bitcoin commodity theorist
📊 Called the GBTC trade that doubled money overnight
💭 Never afraid of provocative opinions
🔥 "Bitcoin is the first ever digital commodity"
KEY INSIGHTS:
⚠️ Why Bitcoin treasury companies should act like ETFs on the downside (42:00)
💰 The OTC desk strategy nobody's implementing (34:00-37:00)
📉 How to survive 80% drawdowns (54:00)
🥇 Why gold will lose to Bitcoin (aluminum precedent at 16:30)
🏦 What happens when governments can't print anymore (19:00)
💎 The GBTC 50% discount trade explained (48:34)
🎯 Why "whoever has most Bitcoin wins" is wrong (44:00)
Timestamps:
00:00 Cold Open
01:13 Intro To Junseth
01:41 The Evolution of Bitcoin: Junseth's Anarchist Dreams to Digital Commodity
03:21 Surprises in Bitcoin Adoption: From Niche to Necessity
05:16 Libertarians and Bitcoin: Mostly Late Arrivals?
10:14 Cycles in Bitcoin: Breaking the Mold
18:11 Gold vs. Bitcoin vs. Equities: The Changing Landscape of Value
25:21 Investment in a Bitcoin World: Rethinking Value and Risk
34:08 Bitcoin Treasuries: A New Paradigm?
39:14 Perpetual Preferred Equity: Opportunities and Risks
40:48 Market Sentiment and Bitcoin's Future
48:34 Looking Back At The GBTC Trade
54:25 Navigating Bear Markets & Spending Your Bitcoin
57:27 It's OK To Spend Your Bitcoin
59:50 Stay Orange
CONTROVERSIAL TAKES:
"Libertarians are so stupid it took them 10 years to figure out Bitcoin doesn't need backing"
"The idea that your treasury would be valued substantially more than it holds is crazy"
"If you're trying to increase Bitcoin per share, you should sell Bitcoin when below mNAV"
"Bitcoin treasury companies should act like ETFs to the downside"
"MSTR should become the biggest OTC desk in the world"
"Whoever has the most Bitcoin wins is a really stupid standard"
"Gold will demonetize over the next 100 years" (aluminum precedent)
"It's okay to take profits - adjust your holdings so you can sleep at night"
COMPANIES DISCUSSED:
MicroStrategy (MSTR/Strategy)
Metaplanet
Nakamoto (NAKA)
Strive Asset Management
Grayscale (GBTC trade breakdown)
Core Scientific (bankruptcy recovery)
WHY THIS MATTERS:
Junseth isn't some Bitcoin influencer chasing engagement. He's been here since the beginning and his contrarian takes have proven right (GBTC trade, early Bitcoin adoption). When he says Bitcoin treasury companies are doing it wrong, it's worth listening.
His OTC desk thesis for MSTR is genuinely novel and makes mathematical sense. The "act like an ETF on the downside" argument challenges the entire treasury company model.
Follow Junseth: https://twitter.com/@VerySmallClaims
Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/@TylerCompiler
RELATED TREASURY ORANGE EPISODES:
Rally Durham: Why He Sold All His MSTR www.youtube.com/watch?v=J-aHzNMUDts
Soleil From True North: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qamyJhu0zvI
Jimmy Song: Why He'll Never Buy MSTR https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qd3z2p743pA
JUNSETH CLASSIC EPISODES:
Junseth Unmasks A Bitcoin Scammer: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NmsAk3kXdz4
Junseth Calling The GBTC Trade: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tF8SJrMnWWQ
📧 Contact: tyler@treasuryorange.com
🎙️ Treasury Orange: Bitcoin treasury company analysis
🟠 STAY ORANGE
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