Climate tipping points could topple like dominoes, warn scientists
科学家警告，气候临界点可能会“多米诺骨牌式”崩塌
Analysis shows significant risk of cascading events even at 2C of heating, with severe long-term effects
分析显示，地球升温2摄氏度也能带来显著的连锁性灾难事件的风险，并带来恶劣长期效应
Ice sheets and ocean currents at risk of climate tipping points can destabilise each other as the world heats up, leading to a domino effect with severe consequences for humanity, according to a risk analysis.
风险分析表明，随着全球气温升高，处于气候临界点的冰原和洋流可以互相加速崩坏，从而导致多米诺骨效应，给全人类带来恶劣后果。
Tipping points occur when global heating pushes temperatures beyond a critical threshold, leading to accelerated and irreversible impacts.
当全球变暖导致温度超过某个关键阈值时，临界点就会出现，从而带来加速且不可逆的影响。
Some large ice sheets in Antarctica are thought to already have passed their tipping points, meaning large sea-level rises in coming centuries.
南极的一些巨大冰原据说已经超过其临界点，这意味着未来几百年之内大幅度海平面上升。
The new research examined the interactions between ice sheets in West Antarctica, Greenland, the warm Atlantic Gulf Stream and the Amazon rainforest.
一项最新研究就检查了西南极洲、格陵兰岛、墨西哥湾暖流以及亚马逊热带雨林之间的相互作用。
The scientists carried out 3m computer simulations and found domino effects in a third of them, even when temperature rises were below 2C, the upper limit of the Paris agreement.
科学家们进行了300万次计算机模拟，发现有三分之一会产生多米诺骨效应，甚至当气温升幅在2摄氏度以内（巴黎协定目标上限）也是如此。
The study showed that the interactions between these climate systems can lower the critical temperature thresholds at which each tipping point is passed.
该研究显示上述气候系统之间的相互作用可以降低关键气温阈值，从而使彼此临界点更快到来。
It found that ice sheets are potential starting points for tipping cascades, with the Atlantic currents acting as a transmitter and eventually affecting the Amazon.
该研究还发现，冰原有可能是临界点连锁崩塌的起点，大西洋洋流为中间媒介，最终将影响亚马逊地区。
“We provide a risk analysis, not a prediction, but our findings still raise concern,” said Prof Ricarda Winkelmann.
“我们只提供风险分析，而非预测，但是我们的发现依然令人忧虑，” 里卡达·温克尔曼表示。
“Our findings might mean we have less time to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and still prevent tipping processes.”
“该发现意味着，留给人类减少温室气体排放，从而避免临界事件产生的时间越来越少了。”
The level of CO2 in the atmosphere required to push temperatures beyond the thresholds could be reached in the very near future, she said.
她表示，未来很快就能达到导致气温超过临界点的大气二氧化碳水平。
“In the next years or decades, we might be committing future generations to really severe consequences.”
“在未来的几年或几十年内，我们可能将使未来几代人深陷困境之中。”
These could include many metres of sea-level rise from ice melting, affecting scores of coastal cities.
这其中就包括，冰原融化导致海平面上升数米，从而影响大量的沿海城市。
“We’re shifting the odds, and not in our favour – the risk clearly is increasing the more we heat our planet,” said Jonathan Donges, part of the research team.
“我们正在使局势朝着不利于我们的方向转变，我们使地球变暖得越多，风险就会越大，”研究团队成员乔纳森·东格斯表示。
In May, scientists reported that a significant part of the Greenland ice sheet was on the brink of a tipping point.
在五月份，科学家们报告，格陵兰大片冰原正处于临界点的边缘。
A 2019 analysis by the University of Exeter suggested the world may already have crossed a series of climate tipping points, resulting in what the researchers called “an existential threat to civilisation”.
2019年埃克塞特大学的一项分析显示，地球可能已经越过了一系列的气候临界点，从而导致“对人类文明的存在性威胁”。
However, the chance of a cascade of tipping points leading to a runaway greenhouse effect, where the planet gets ever hotter even if humanity stops carbon emissions, is extremely unlikely, according to Prof Anders Levermann.
然而，安德斯·莱弗曼教授表示，一系列的临界点导致温室效应失控（也就是说，即使人类停止碳排放，地球仍会变暖）的可能性是极低的。
“The Earth will get as warm as we make it, which means we’re the ones that must stop it,” he said.
他表示，“只有人类活动才会使地球变暖，也就是说我们必须要阻止地球变暖。”
