For what seemed like AGES, low interest rates and low inflation rates gave the impression that the factors affecting a client’s future were pretty predictable.
But more recently, roller-coaster interest and inflation rates, combined with pandemics and wars, could leave you thinking that the future is altogether more unpredictable.
But is it?
During this online Assembly, Dan Atkinson and Richard Allum explore ways to think about planning assumptions in future.
They consider the kind of indicators that can form a set of assumptions with the durability to withstand those periodic headwinds sparked by social, economic and environmental events – the kind that have dominated our lives lately.
Of course investments are important but healthspans, death, inflation, spending, retirement, care and more have the potential to feature.
And then there are clients with specific outcomes in mind to add to the mix – for instance, meeting school fees, saving to offset childrens’ university tuition fees or deposits for their first homes.
Dan and Richard referred to loads of sources of information throughout this Assembly. We've posted them at the event page but thought we'd add them here too:
Links
ONS: mortality in England and Wales ➔ https://bit.ly/41tRNbE
ONS: life expectancies ➔ https://bit.ly/4aFEHwr
ONS: life expectancy calculator ➔ https://bit.ly/3tfKCYd
Inequalities in life expectancy ➔ https://bit.ly/48fzv06
🥕 Carrot price ➔ https://bit.ly/4avnDcn
🥬 Brussels sprouts price ➔ https://bit.ly/48fzGZk
Guaranteed income: a licence to spend ➔ https://bit.ly/48lX7A8
Downloads
IFP briefing paper on assumptions ➔ https://bit.ly/41r9R6l (opens PDF)
FCA product projections and transfer value analysis ➔ https://bit.ly/3GPs5oB (opens PDF)
Rates of return for FCA prescribed projections ➔ https://bit.ly/3v5T6BD (opens PDF)
Screengrabs
The wealth effect in later life ➔ https://bit.ly/3NyMNwL (opens PNG image)
UK inflation from 1210 to 2000 ➔ https://bit.ly/3tlD5qJ (opens PNG image)
UK inflation from 1950 to 2023 ➔ https://bit.ly/3GNkGpO (opens PNG image)
Private education fees ➔ https://bit.ly/3towJa1 (opens PNG image)
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