Economists at JPMorgan Chase raise the likelihood of a recession in 2024 to 35%, up from 25%, with a 45% chance of recession in late 2025. U.S. wage inflation slows unlike other developed economies, suggesting restrictive Federal Reserve policy and potential rate cuts in September and November 2024. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon cites uncertainty from geopolitics, housing, deficits, spending, quantitative tightening, and elections. A recent jobs report shows the unemployment rate at 4.1% in June, causing volatility in the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq.
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