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Markets are exhaling, but not relaxing. U.S. equity futures hovered just above record highs on Tuesday, buoyed by a swirl of trade diplomacy, central-bank suspense, and corporate recalibration. The immediate catalyst was a new U.S.-Japan framework on critical minerals, a small but symbolically potent step in the West's economic realignment around supply-chain security. Investors, however, have one eye on Tokyo and the other on Washington, where the Federal Reserve meets amid a month-long government shutdown and fraying economic visibility.

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