In this weeks’ episode we explore where the CORE inflation is sitting and why we feel the result spells an almost certain .05% - 0.75% interest rate hike increase on September 7th. While it’s debatable what the BoC will do, what isn’t debatable is the huge drop in real estate prices we have seen in the last few months as a result of rising interest rates levels and inflationary pressures.
Canadian home prices have fallen a staggering 9.9% nationally since the peak of the market in late Feb 2022. This is the steepest decline in recorded history, even surpassing the Global Financial Crisis of 2008 when prices dropped 9.1%. Toronto is without a doubt taking the brunt of it with prices down a concerning 13.2% and inventory up nearly 60%. Vancouver by comparison has only seen a correction of about 4.5% with much tighter inventory levels - in real terms, Vancouver’s inventory is actually down from this time last year, it hasn’t increased. While Inventory has generally climbed across the nation, we are sitting at only 3.4 months of inventory whereas the long term average is closer to 5 months.
Immigration numbers are at all time highs and while housing starts are as well, they are far out from completing and continue to provide little relief in the face of an intense rental market. With more than 230,000 permanent residents having already arrived in the first 6 months of the year, expect Canadian immigration to continue to drive growth in the long term. With over 1 million job vacancies and skilled labour making up 56% of the available jobs, it’s no wonder Canada remains one of the best options for skilled immigrants around the world.
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